Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 5

Paris FC vs Strasbourg

· Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino· Referee Jeremy Stinat

Full time2 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Paris FC to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Paris FCDrawStrasbourg

Why this pick: Paris FC vs Strasbourg

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris FC 10, Strasbourg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Paris FCStrasbourg
2.14 xG per 90 1.52
1.90 npxG per 90 1.44
15.2 PPDA 13.5
7.1 Deep completions per 90 7.2
2.04 xPTS per 90 1.04

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Paris FC vs Strasbourg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParis FCDrawStrasbourg
Model68%18%14%
Market49%26%26%
Published53%24%23%
Edge+19%-8%-12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 1.04.
  • The market prices Paris FC below the model: +19.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Paris FC vs Strasbourg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 26 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 2.15Now 1.97 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Paris FC2.151.97-0.18
Draw3.553.75+0.20
Strasbourg2.903.70+0.80

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Paris FC and Strasbourg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.56Paris FC
1.04Strasbourg
Total expected goals
3.60
Attack rating (Paris FC / Strasbourg)
1.33 / 0.99
Defence rating (Paris FC / Strasbourg)
0.84 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paris FC vs Strasbourg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 1 7.4% 8.1% 4.1% 1.4% 0.5% 2 9.2% 9.6% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 3 7.5% 7.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 4+ 8.1% 8.4% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5%

Rows: Paris FC goals. Columns: Strasbourg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paris FC vs Strasbourg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paris FC vs Strasbourg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Paris FC53%1.87
Draw24%4.23
Strasbourg23%4.36
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.48
Under 2.533%3.07
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.45
Double chance1X (Paris FC or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Strasbourg)47%2.15
Handicap -1Paris FC win by 2+46%2.18
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Paris FC and Strasbourg recent form

Paris FC 3W 2D 1L
Strasbourg 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Paris FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

Strasbourg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Paris FC at home only, Strasbourg away only.

Injuries & availability

Paris FC absences

  • E. Mbemba inactive
  • N. Sangui injury
  • Otavio injury
  • T. De Smet inactive

Strasbourg absences

  • J. Panichelli knee injury
  • M. Godo muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Paris FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 K. Trapp
  2. 14 H. Traoré
  3. 42 D. Coppola
  4. 5 M. Mbow
  5. 17 A. Camara
  6. 20 M. Lopez
  7. 33 P. Lees-Melou
  8. 15 L. Koleosho
  9. 7 P. Pagis
  10. 10 I. Kebbal
  11. 9 L. Sinayoko

Bench: V. Marchetti, E. Zabi, J. Krasso, O. Nkambadio, R. Matondo, Y. Koré, M. Simon, T. De Smet, J. Ikoné

Strasbourg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 F. Jörgensen
  2. 36 Oso
  3. 6 I. Doukouré
  4. 4 J. Mitchell
  5. 16 G. Antwi
  6. 23 Diogo Sousa
  7. 29 S. El Mourabet
  8. 11 S. Nanasi
  9. 10 G. Reyna
  10. 80 Gessime Yassine
  11. 30 J. Ortega

Bench: S. Amo-Ameyaw, M. Piekutowski, Dário Essugo, P. Diop, L. Høgsberg, Tyrese Noubissie, Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, C. Harder

Paris FC vs Strasbourg head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Paris FC 2 · draws 2 · Strasbourg 2.

Paris FCDrawsStrasbourg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Strasbourg0-0Paris FCLigue 1
2025-09-21Paris FC2-3StrasbourgLigue 1
2015-01-30Strasbourg2-1Paris FCLigue 3
2014-08-22Paris FC1-1StrasbourgLigue 3
2014-03-01Strasbourg0-2Paris FCLigue 3
2013-09-13Paris FC2-0StrasbourgLigue 3

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match