Why this pick: Nice vs Lille
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nice 10, Lille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nice vs Lille: model vs market
| Source | Nice | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 46% |
| Published | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Nice vs Lille odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lille, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 3.80 | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.50 | +0.20 |
| Lille | 1.95 | 2.05 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nice and Lille expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Nice / Lille)
- 0.83 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Nice / Lille)
- 1.21 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nice vs Lille score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nice goals. Columns: Lille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nice vs Lille goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nice vs Lille
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nice | 27% | 3.67 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Lille | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nice or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Lille) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win by 2+ | 23% | 4.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nice and Lille recent form
Nice
0W 3D 3L
Lille
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Lille away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Nice at home only, Lille away only.
Injuries & availability
Nice absences
-
A. Mendy
knee injury
-
L. Abergel
knee injury
-
M. Bombito
leg injury
-
M. Sanson
surgery
Lille absences
-
H. Igamane
knee injury
-
T. Nianzou
knock
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Nice lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 28 A. Witsel
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 92 J. Clauss
- 9 M. Amoura
- 7 G. Hein
- 11 E. Wahi
Bench: A. Abdi, H. Boudaoui, S. Diop, I. Jansson, N. Ngoumou, A. Seidu, T. Boulhendi, H. Koutoune, E. Pereira
Lille lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 B. Özer
- 15 R. Perraud
- 4 Alexsandro Ribeiro
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 22 Tiago Santos
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 21 B. André
- 19 B. Önal
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 8 E. Mbappé
- 18 A. Ueda
Bench: D. Bakwa, O. Giroud, O. Sahraoui, O. Gill, M. Kjærgaard, N. Mukau, C. Verdonk, I. Cossier, G. Perrin
Nice vs Lille head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nice 3 · draws 5 · Lille 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Lille | 0-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Nice | 2-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-17 | Lille | 2-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Nice | 2-2 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Lille | 2-2 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-08-12 | Nice | 1-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-08-11 | Nice | 1-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-01-29 | Nice | 1-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-08-31 | Lille | 1-2 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-05-14 | Nice | 1-3 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Monaco v Lens — match page 2026-09-18
- Paris FC v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-19
- Angers v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-09-19
- Lyon vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Toulouse vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Le Mans vs Lorient — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Auxerre vs Brest 2026-09-20
- Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Nice, previous: Auxerre – Nice, 2026-09-12
- Nice, next: Nice – Strasbourg, 2026-10-11
- Lille, previous: Lille vs Estac Troyes prediction
- Lille, next: Lille vs Le Havre prediction