Nice vs Strasbourg preview
Nice has a 41% probability of winning, while Strasbourg stands at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. Nice's expected goals are 1.63 compared to Strasbourg's 1.42. Both teams have a 60% chance of scoring, and there is a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form shows Nice with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Strasbourg has managed 4 wins in their last 6. Head-to-head results favour Nice, who have won 4 of the last 7 encounters, with Strasbourg winning just once. The confidence grade for this match is A, but the recent inconsistency of Nice raises questions.
Why this pick: Nice vs Strasbourg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nice 10, Strasbourg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nice vs Strasbourg: model vs market
| Source | Nice | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | -1% | -2% | +2% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nice vs Strasbourg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nice, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 2.22 | 2.32 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.56 | 3.60 | +0.04 |
| Strasbourg | 3.14 | 2.94 | -0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nice and Strasbourg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Nice / Strasbourg)
- 0.89 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Nice / Strasbourg)
- 1.23 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nice vs Strasbourg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nice goals. Columns: Strasbourg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nice vs Strasbourg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nice vs Strasbourg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nice | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Strasbourg | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nice or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Strasbourg) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nice win by 2+ | 20% | 4.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nice and Strasbourg recent form
Nice
1W 2D 3L
Strasbourg
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nice at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
Strasbourg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
League matches this season before kick-off: Nice at home only, Strasbourg away only.
Injuries & availability
Nice
-
A. Mendy
knee injury
-
L. Abergel
knee injury
-
M. Bombito
leg injury
Strasbourg
-
I. Doukoure
inactive
-
J. Panichelli
knee injury
-
M. Godo
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Nice vs Strasbourg head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Nice 4 · draws 2 · Strasbourg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Strasbourg | 0-2 | Nice | Coupe de France |
| 2026-04-04 | Strasbourg | 3-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Nice | 1-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Strasbourg | 2-2 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Nice | 2-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Strasbourg | 1-3 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Nice | 2-0 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
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- Lille v Le Havre — match page 2026-10-10
- Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans 2026-10-10
- Monaco v Toulouse — match page 2026-10-10
- Lorient vs Paris FC 2026-10-10
- Brest v Angers — match page 2026-10-10
- Rennes vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Estac Troyes vs Marseille — team news & stats 2026-10-11