Lille vs Le Havre preview
Lille has a 63% probability of winning against Le Havre, who sit at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Lille's expected goals stand at 2.08, compared to Le Havre's 1.24, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Lille with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Le Havre has only 1 win in the same period. In their last 7 encounters, Lille has 5 wins, 1 draw, and Le Havre has 1 win. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of Le Havre introduces a significant source of doubt.
Why this pick: Lille vs Le Havre
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lille 10, Le Havre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lille vs Le Havre: model vs market
| Source | Lille | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Published | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Edge | -12% | +2% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lille vs Le Havre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lille, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.40 | 1.44 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.82 | 4.70 | -0.12 |
| Le Havre | 7.61 | 6.79 | -0.82 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lille and Le Havre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Lille / Le Havre)
- 1.07 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Lille / Le Havre)
- 1.02 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lille vs Le Havre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Le Havre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lille vs Le Havre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lille vs Le Havre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Le Havre | 16% | 6.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lille or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Le Havre) | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win by 2+ | 32% | 3.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lille and Le Havre recent form
Lille
3W 1D 2L
Le Havre
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lille at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Le Havre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lille at home only, Le Havre away only.
Injuries & availability
Lille
-
H. Igamane
knee injury
Le Havre
-
A. Toure
knee injury
- E. Jelert thigh injury
-
F. Mambimbi
achilles tendon injury
-
L. Mpasi-Nzau
achilles tendon injury
-
S. Zagadou
knee injury
-
T. Pembele
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Lille vs Le Havre head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Lille 5 · draws 1 · Le Havre 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Lille | 1-1 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Le Havre | 0-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Lille | 1-2 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Le Havre | 0-3 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-17 | Lille | 3-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-01 | Le Havre | 0-2 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-07-26 | Lille | 3-2 | Le Havre | Friendlies Clubs |
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