Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 5

Angers vs Estac Troyes

· Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers· Referee Azzedine Souifi

Full time2 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Angers to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AngersDrawEstac Troyes

Why this pick: Angers vs Estac Troyes

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Angers 10, Estac Troyes 4). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AngersEstac Troyes
1.31 xG per 90 1.26
1.09 npxG per 90 1.07
18.0 PPDA 17.2
3.8 Deep completions per 90 7.5
0.99 xPTS per 90 0.85

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Angers vs Estac Troyes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAngersDrawEstac Troyes
Model31%24%45%
Market46%27%27%
Published42%26%31%
Edge-15%-3%+19%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Angers vs Estac Troyes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Angers, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 1.84Now 2.07 +0.23
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Angers1.842.07+0.23
Draw3.103.58+0.48
Estac Troyes3.453.58+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Angers and Estac Troyes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50Angers
1.76Estac Troyes
Total expected goals
3.26
Attack rating (Angers / Estac Troyes)
0.90 / 1.15
Defence rating (Angers / Estac Troyes)
1.23 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Angers vs Estac Troyes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 7.0% 6.4% 3.8% 2.5% 1 5.6% 10.6% 9.1% 5.4% 3.5% 2 4.2% 7.4% 6.5% 3.8% 2.5% 3 2.0% 3.5% 3.1% 1.8% 1.2% 4+ 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Angers goals. Columns: Estac Troyes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Angers vs Estac Troyes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Angers vs Estac Troyes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Angers42%2.35
Draw26%3.84
Estac Troyes31%3.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.61
Under 2.538%2.63
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.58
No37%2.73
Double chance1X (Angers or draw)69%1.46
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Estac Troyes)58%1.74
Handicap -1Angers win by 2+14%7.06
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Angers and Estac Troyes recent form

Angers 1W 3D 2L
Estac Troyes 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Angers at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Estac Troyes away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Angers at home only, Estac Troyes away only.

Injuries & availability

Angers absences

  • H. Belkebla thigh injury

Estac Troyes absences

  • A. Phliponeau knee injury
  • I. Boura injury
  • M. Ifnaoui injury
  • P. Gozzi muscle injury
  • Y. Titi injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Angers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Anthony Lopes
  2. 17 J. Kalulu
  3. 21 J. Lefort
  4. 4 O. Camara
  5. 2 C. Arcus
  6. 8 B. van den Boomen
  7. 14 Y. Belkhdim
  8. 10 A. Sbaï
  9. 19 A. El Ouazzani
  10. 18 J. Allevinah
  11. 9 P. Peter

Bench: U. Simbakoli, Djibirin Harouna, M. Zinga, Marius Louër, E. Biumla, A. Bermont, L. Rao-Lisoa, Bane Diatta, H. Belkebla

Estac Troyes lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 33 P. Beach
  2. 3 A. Ouzenadji
  3. 4 M. Diaz
  4. 6 A. Monfray
  5. 31 Noah Donkor
  6. 29 D. Karim
  7. 8 M. Diop
  8. 11 I. Gomis
  9. 17 A. Mille
  10. 23 T. Nkada
  11. 9 J. Le Douaron

Bench: L. Maronnier, K. Diawara, R. Ripart, H. Picard, I. Soukouna, Y. Kone, H. Konaté

Angers vs Estac Troyes head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Angers 7 · draws 1 · Estac Troyes 2.

AngersDrawsEstac Troyes
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-04-20Angers2-1Estac TroyesLigue 2
2023-12-16Estac Troyes1-4AngersLigue 2
2023-05-27Angers2-1Estac TroyesLigue 1
2022-08-28Estac Troyes3-1AngersLigue 1
2022-01-23Angers2-1Estac TroyesLigue 1
2021-09-26Estac Troyes1-1AngersLigue 1
2021-07-24Angers3-0Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs
2018-01-17Angers3-1Estac TroyesLigue 1
2017-11-25Estac Troyes3-0AngersLigue 1
2016-04-02Estac Troyes0-1AngersLigue 1

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match