Why this pick: Monaco vs Lens
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monaco 10, Lens 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Monaco vs Lens: model vs market
| Source | Monaco | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 21% | 46% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Published | 44% | 25% | 32% |
| Edge | -14% | -5% | +19% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Monaco vs Lens odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 25 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2.10 | 2.02 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.74 | +0.34 |
| Lens | 2.55 | 3.59 | +1.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monaco and Lens expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.02
- Attack rating (Monaco / Lens)
- 1.17 / 1.65
- Defence rating (Monaco / Lens)
- 1.03 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monaco vs Lens score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monaco goals. Columns: Lens goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monaco vs Lens goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monaco vs Lens
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Lens | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monaco or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Lens) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win by 2+ | 17% | 5.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Monaco and Lens recent form
Monaco
5W 1D 0L
Lens
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monaco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Lens away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Monaco at home only, Lens away only.
Injuries & availability
Monaco absences
-
A. Fati
calf injury
-
A. Soubeir
injury
-
F. Balogun
injury
-
J. Teze
injury
-
M. Coulibaly
muscle injury
-
S. Idumbo
groin injury
-
T. Minamino
lacking match fitness
Lens absences
-
J. Chavez
thigh injury
-
M. Nawrocki
injury
-
S. Abdulhamid
contusion
-
S. Baidoo
knee injury
-
Y. Titraoui
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Monaco vs Lens head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Monaco 3 · draws 3 · Lens 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Lens | 2-3 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Monaco | 1-4 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Lens | 4-0 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Monaco | 1-1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-25 | Lens | 2-3 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-07 | Lens | 2-2 | Monaco | Coupe de France |
| 2023-09-02 | Monaco | 3-0 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-04-22 | Lens | 3-0 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-08-20 | Monaco | 1-4 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-05-21 | Lens | 2-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Paris FC v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-19
- Angers v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-09-19
- Lyon vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Toulouse vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Le Mans vs Lorient — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Auxerre vs Brest 2026-09-20
- Nice vs Lille 2026-09-20
- Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Monaco, previous: Strasbourg vs Monaco: odds and pick
- Monaco, next: Monaco vs Toulouse: odds and pick
- Lens, previous: Le Mans – Lens, 2026-09-13
- Lens, next: Lens vs Lyon prediction