Why this pick: Toulouse vs Le Havre
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Toulouse 10, Le Havre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Toulouse vs Le Havre: model vs market
| Source | Toulouse | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.22.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Toulouse vs Le Havre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toulouse, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.62 | 1.70 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 4.03 | +0.68 |
| Le Havre | 4.20 | 4.78 | +0.58 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Toulouse and Le Havre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Toulouse / Le Havre)
- 1.07 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Toulouse / Le Havre)
- 1.08 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Toulouse vs Le Havre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Toulouse goals. Columns: Le Havre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Toulouse vs Le Havre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Toulouse vs Le Havre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 55% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Le Havre | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Toulouse or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Le Havre) | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toulouse win by 2+ | 30% | 3.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Toulouse and Le Havre recent form
Toulouse
1W 3D 2L
Le Havre
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Toulouse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Le Havre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Toulouse at home only, Le Havre away only.
Injuries & availability
Toulouse absences
-
A. Francis
muscle injury
-
R. Nicolaisen
calf injury
Le Havre absences
-
A. Toure
knee injury
-
F. Mambimbi
injury
-
J. Mwanga
groin injury
-
L. Mpasi-Nzau
injury
-
P. Argney
injury
-
R. Ndiaye
groin injury
-
S. Zagadou
injury
-
T. Pembele
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Toulouse lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 16 G. Restes
- 12 C. Tapé
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 14 N. Sigur
- 20 C. Tengstedt
- 23 C. Cásseres
- 37 Y. Azizi
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 22 R. Messali
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
Bench: A. Vossah, Julián Vignolo, S. Hidalgo, S. Oppong, A. Dønnum, M. Amougou, D. Odogu, N. Schmidt, M. Niflore
Le Havre lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 93 G. Gallon
- 5 A. Touba
- 15 A. Seko
- 23 V. Sasso
- 20 D. Ouziad
- 7 A. Richardson
- 26 S. Ebonog
- 12 E. Jelert
- 25 M. Samatta
- 38 R. Fofana
- 9 J. Maja
Bench: J. Mwanga, R. Ndiaye, A. Bodart, K. Mizuta, E. Koffi Vinette, S. Nakamura, I. Bouneb, D. Mosengo
Toulouse vs Le Havre head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Toulouse 5 · draws 2 · Le Havre 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Le Havre | 2-1 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Toulouse | 0-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Le Havre | 1-4 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Toulouse | 2-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Le Havre | 1-0 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-05 | Toulouse | 1-2 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-02-21 | Toulouse | 4-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
| 2021-09-13 | Le Havre | 1-1 | Toulouse | Ligue 2 |
| 2021-05-04 | Le Havre | 0-1 | Toulouse | Ligue 2 |
| 2020-12-19 | Toulouse | 4-3 | Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Monaco v Lens — match page 2026-09-18
- Paris FC v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-19
- Angers v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-09-19
- Lyon vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Le Mans vs Lorient — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Auxerre vs Brest 2026-09-20
- Nice vs Lille 2026-09-20
- Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Toulouse, previous: Lorient vs Toulouse prediction
- Toulouse, next: Monaco vs Toulouse: odds and pick
- Le Havre, previous: Le Havre v Angers analysis
- Le Havre, next: Lille vs Le Havre prediction