Why this pick: Auxerre vs Brest
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Auxerre 10, Brest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Auxerre vs Brest: model vs market
| Source | Auxerre | Draw | Brest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 22% | 45% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Edge | +1% | -5% | +5% |
- The market prices Brest below the model: +4.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Auxerre vs Brest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brest, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 2.15 | 3.00 | +0.85 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.48 | +0.33 |
| Brest | 2.65 | 2.36 | -0.29 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Auxerre and Brest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.70
- Attack rating (Auxerre / Brest)
- 0.97 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Auxerre / Brest)
- 1.28 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Auxerre vs Brest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Auxerre goals. Columns: Brest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Auxerre vs Brest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Auxerre vs Brest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auxerre | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Brest | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Auxerre or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Brest) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brest win by 2+ | 26% | 3.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Auxerre and Brest recent form
Auxerre
3W 0D 3L
Brest
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Auxerre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Brest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Auxerre at home only, Brest away only.
Injuries & availability
Auxerre absences
-
A. Diousse
knee injury
-
B. Okoh
knee injury
-
M. Senaya
injury
-
T. Siwe
muscle injury
Brest absences
-
B. Chardonnet
calf injury
-
M. Diambou
ankle injury
-
N. Edjouma
muscle injury
-
R. Cagnon
shoulder injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Auxerre lineup · 3-4-3
- 23 M. Diop
- 92 C. Akpa
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 15 C. Makosso
- 22 F. Oppegård
- 5 K. Danois
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 27 L. Sy
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary
- 9 C. Archer
- 10 D. Namaso
Bench: P. Nardi, N. Ahamada, P. Ekwah, S. Diomandé, R. Faivre, R. Mandengue, L. Dioubate, E. Legros
Brest lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 E. Selvik
- 2 B. Locko
- 4 G. Lloris
- 71 R. Le Guen
- 70 K. Lala
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 13 J. Chotard
- 9 P. Mboup
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 10 G. Versini
- 19 L. Ajorque
Bench: J. Nonge Boende, Mama Baldé, J. Bourgault, L. Zogbe, Ibrahim Yayiya Kante, L. Tousart, M. Patouillet, L. C. Laine M., D. N´Guessan
Auxerre vs Brest head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Auxerre 2 · draws 3 · Brest 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Auxerre | 3-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Brest | 2-0 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-14 | Brest | 2-2 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-27 | Auxerre | 3-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-05-14 | Brest | 1-0 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-02 | Auxerre | 1-1 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2019-02-11 | Brest | 1-0 | Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
| 2018-08-31 | Auxerre | 0-2 | Brest | Ligue 2 |
| 2018-03-09 | Auxerre | 1-2 | Brest | Ligue 2 |
| 2017-10-13 | Brest | 1-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Monaco v Lens — match page 2026-09-18
- Paris FC v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-19
- Angers v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-09-19
- Lyon vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Toulouse vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Le Mans vs Lorient — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Nice vs Lille 2026-09-20
- Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Auxerre, previous: Auxerre – Nice, 2026-09-12
- Auxerre, next: Rennes vs Auxerre prediction
- Brest, previous: Brest v Paris Saint Germain analysis
- Brest, next: Brest v Angers analysis