Levante vs Sevilla preview
Levante has a 41% probability of winning against Sevilla, who sits at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 62% chance for each side, while the expected goals are 1.94 for Levante and 1.18 for Sevilla.
Levante's recent form shows 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while Sevilla has 4 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Despite Levante's head-to-head advantage with 2 wins from the last 2 encounters, the confidence grade is A. The single largest source of doubt lies in the contrasting recent performances of the two teams.
Why this pick: Levante vs Sevilla
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Levante 10, Sevilla 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Levante vs Sevilla: model vs market
| Source | Levante | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 37% |
| Published | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | +20% | -3% | -17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.18.
- The market prices Levante below the model: +20.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.84, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Levante vs Sevilla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Levante, 61 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 2.61 | 2.72 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.33 | +0.08 |
| Sevilla | 2.79 | 2.60 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Levante and Sevilla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Levante / Sevilla)
- 1.21 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Levante / Sevilla)
- 1.30 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Levante vs Sevilla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Levante goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Levante vs Sevilla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Levante vs Sevilla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levante | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Sevilla | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Levante or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Sevilla) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Levante win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Levante and Sevilla recent form
Levante
1W 2D 3L
Sevilla
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Levante at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Sevilla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Levante at home only, Sevilla away only.
Levante vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Levante 2 · draws 0 · Sevilla 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Levante | 2-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2026-01-04 | Sevilla | 0-3 | Levante | La Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club — match page 2026-10-10
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-10
- Barcelona v Getafe — match page 2026-10-10
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal 2026-10-10
- Elche vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-11
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-10-11
- Real Betis vs Osasuna — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Racing Santander v Valencia — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Levante, next: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante: odds and pick