Why this pick: Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Celta Vigo 10, Athletic Club 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club: model vs market
| Source | Celta Vigo | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 30% | 32% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celta Vigo, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 2.43 | 2.39 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.25 | -0.17 |
| Athletic Club | 3.21 | 3.05 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celta Vigo and Athletic Club expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Athletic Club)
- 0.80 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Athletic Club)
- 1.21 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Athletic Club | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celta Vigo or draw) | 68% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Athletic Club) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celta Vigo win by 2+ | 22% | 4.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Celta Vigo and Athletic Club recent form
Celta Vigo
2W 2D 2L
Athletic Club
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celta Vigo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Athletic Club away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Celta Vigo at home only, Athletic Club away only.
Injuries & availability
Celta Vigo absences
-
B. Iglesias
muscle injury
-
M. Alonso
suspended
Athletic Club absences
-
A. Gorosabel
transfer negotiations
-
B. Prados Diaz
thigh injury
-
D. Vivian
hamstring injury
-
N. Serrano
coach's decision
-
U. Egiluz
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Celta Vigo 2 · draws 1 · Athletic Club 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Athletic Club | 1-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2025-12-14 | Celta Vigo | 2-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2025-01-19 | Celta Vigo | 1-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2024-09-22 | Athletic Club | 3-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2024-05-15 | Celta Vigo | 2-1 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2023-11-10 | Athletic Club | 4-3 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Real Madrid v Malaga — match page 2026-08-30
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Osasuna v Getafe — match page 2026-08-31
Before and after this match
- Celta Vigo, next: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo: odds and pick
- Athletic Club, next: Athletic Club v Atletico Madrid analysis