Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano preview
Getafe has a 34% probability of winning against Rayo Vallecano, who also stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a probability of 7%. Getafe's expected goals are 1.29, slightly higher than Rayo Vallecano's 1.16. Both teams to score is forecasted at 53%, while over 2.5 goals sits at 46%.
Getafe's recent form shows 2 draws and 3 losses, while Rayo Vallecano has 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches. In their last 6 head-to-head encounters, Getafe has not secured a win, with 3 draws and 3 losses against Rayo Vallecano. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of recent victories for Getafe raises questions.
Why this pick: Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Rayo Vallecano 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: model vs market
| Source | Getafe | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Market | 32% | 32% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Edge | +6% | 0% | -7% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.74, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rayo Vallecano, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 2.71 | 2.95 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 2.99 | -0.11 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 2.44 | 2.65 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Getafe / Rayo Vallecano)
- 0.76 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Getafe / Rayo Vallecano)
- 1.06 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Rayo Vallecano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 34% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.14 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Getafe or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Rayo Vallecano) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win by 2+ | 13% | 7.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano recent form
Getafe
1W 3D 2L
Rayo Vallecano
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Getafe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Rayo Vallecano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, Rayo Vallecano away only.
Injuries & availability
Getafe absences
-
C. Uche
knee injury
- E. Unal muscle injury
- I. Azon injury
-
Juanmi
knee injury
- O. Mangala muscle injury
-
Z. Romero
injury
Rayo Vallecano absences
-
A. Batalla
broken calfbone
- A. Ratiu injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Getafe 0 · draws 3 · Rayo Vallecano 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Getafe | 0-2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2026-01-02 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2025-05-02 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-08-24 | Getafe | 0-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2024-04-13 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-01-02 | Getafe | 0-2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Valencia vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves 2026-10-18
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Getafe, previous: Barcelona v Getafe analysis
- Rayo Vallecano, previous: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: odds and pick
- Rayo Vallecano, next: Rayo Vallecano – Elche, 2026-10-24