Why this pick: Estac Troyes vs Lens
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Estac Troyes 6, Lens 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Estac Troyes vs Lens: model vs market
| Source | Estac Troyes | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| Market | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Published | 26% | 25% | 50% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Estac Troyes vs Lens odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lens, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 4.00 | 3.90 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.80 | -0.14 |
| Lens | 1.80 | 1.88 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Estac Troyes and Lens expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Estac Troyes / Lens)
- 0.90 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Estac Troyes / Lens)
- 1.12 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estac Troyes vs Lens score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estac Troyes goals. Columns: Lens goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estac Troyes vs Lens goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estac Troyes vs Lens
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estac Troyes | 26% | 3.91 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Lens | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estac Troyes or draw) | 50% | 1.99 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Lens) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Estac Troyes and Lens recent form
Estac Troyes
1W 1D 4L
Lens
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Estac Troyes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Lens away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Estac Troyes at home only, Lens away only.
Injuries & availability
Estac Troyes absences
- A. Ouzenadji knee injury
-
I. Boura
hip injury
- Y. Kone knee injury
-
Y. Titi
leg injury
Lens absences
-
A. Sima
muscle injury
-
J. Chavez
thigh injury
-
J. Gradit
muscle injury
-
M. Nawrocki
knee injury
- M. Udol suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Estac Troyes lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 33 P. Beach
- 5 P. Gozzi
- 4 M. Diaz
- 6 A. Monfray
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 29 D. Karim
- 8 M. Diop
- 23 T. Nkada
- 10 M. Ifnaoui
- 17 A. Mille
- 20 R. Ripart
Bench: K. Diawara, J. Le Douaron, I. Gomis, H. Picard, A. Phliponeau, Noah Donkor, C. Batola, H. Konaté
Lens lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 40 R. Risser
- 20 J. Todibo
- 25 I. Ganiou
- 32 K. Antonio
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 11 O. Édouard
Bench: S. Baidoo, T. Hazard, M. Gorgelin, A. Haidara, Saud Abdulhamid, M. Cuisance, J. Kadile, F. Ivanović, M. Soares
Estac Troyes vs Lens head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Estac Troyes 2 · draws 1 · Lens 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | Estac Troyes | 2-4 | Lens | Coupe de France |
| 2023-01-28 | Estac Troyes | 1-1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-09-09 | Lens | 1-0 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-05-14 | Estac Troyes | 1-3 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-11-05 | Lens | 4-0 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 2020-02-04 | Lens | 1-0 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| 2019-08-24 | Estac Troyes | 2-0 | Lens | Ligue 2 |
| 2019-08-13 | Estac Troyes | 1-2 | Lens | Coupe de la Ligue |
| 2019-01-28 | Estac Troyes | 1-0 | Lens | Ligue 2 |
| 2018-08-18 | Lens | 2-0 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Le Mans vs Toulouse 2026-10-16
- Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — match page 2026-10-17
- Lille vs Brest — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Angers v Marseille — match page 2026-10-18
- Lorient vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Le Havre v Auxerre — match page 2026-10-18
- Paris FC vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lyon vs Nice 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Estac Troyes, previous: Estac Troyes vs Marseille: odds and pick
- Estac Troyes, next: Toulouse v Estac Troyes analysis
- Lens, previous: Lens vs Lyon prediction
- Lens, next: Lens – Paris FC, 2026-10-24