Paris FC vs Rennes preview
Paris FC has a 46% probability of winning, while Rennes sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance according to the model. Paris FC's expected goals are 2.26, significantly higher than Rennes' 1.07. However, this does not guarantee a win for Paris FC, as their recent form shows mixed results with 2 wins in the last 5 matches.
Rennes has shown stronger recent form with 5 wins in their last 6 matches. The probabilities indicate a likelihood of 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score. Despite Paris FC's higher expected goals, their head-to-head record against Rennes presents a notable concern, as they have 0 wins and 0 draws in their last 2 encounters.
Why this pick: Paris FC vs Rennes
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris FC 10, Rennes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Paris FC vs Rennes: model vs market
| Source | Paris FC | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | +18% | -7% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.12.
- The market prices Paris FC below the model: +18.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Paris FC vs Rennes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 2.30 | 2.28 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.41 | -0.04 |
| Rennes | 3.15 | 3.10 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Paris FC and Rennes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Paris FC / Rennes)
- 1.18 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Paris FC / Rennes)
- 0.73 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Paris FC vs Rennes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Paris FC goals. Columns: Rennes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Paris FC vs Rennes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Paris FC vs Rennes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Rennes | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Paris FC or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Rennes) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Paris FC and Rennes recent form
Paris FC
3W 2D 1L
Rennes
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Paris FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rennes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Paris FC at home only, Rennes away only.
Injuries & availability
Paris FC absences
-
J. Ikone
thigh injury
-
N. Sangui
muscle injury
- S. Chergui knee injury
- V. Marchetti inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Paris FC vs Rennes head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Paris FC 0 · draws 0 · Rennes 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Rennes | 2-1 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Paris FC | 0-1 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Le Mans vs Toulouse 2026-10-16
- Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — match page 2026-10-17
- Lille vs Brest — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Estac Troyes vs Lens 2026-10-17
- Angers v Marseille — match page 2026-10-18
- Lorient vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Le Havre v Auxerre — match page 2026-10-18
- Lyon vs Nice 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Paris FC, previous: Lorient – Paris FC, 2026-10-10
- Rennes, previous: Rennes vs Auxerre prediction