Le Havre vs Auxerre preview
Le Havre has a 40% probability of winning against Auxerre, who stands at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to the model. Le Havre's expected goals sit at 1.81, while Auxerre's is lower at 1.37. Despite Le Havre's recent form of L-L-D-L-D-L, they have a strong head-to-head record, winning 3 of their last 4 encounters against Auxerre, who have not secured a win in that period.
Auxerre's recent form shows a mixed bag with L-W-W-L-L-L. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 61%, and there is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. The confidence grade for this forecast is A. The lack of recent wins for Le Havre raises questions about their current performance.
Why this pick: Le Havre vs Auxerre
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Havre 10, Auxerre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Le Havre vs Auxerre: model vs market
| Source | Le Havre | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | +4% | -4% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.37.
- The market prices Le Havre below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Le Havre vs Auxerre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Le Havre, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 2.43 | 2.30 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.41 | +0.01 |
| Auxerre | 2.85 | 3.10 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Le Havre and Auxerre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.17
- Attack rating (Le Havre / Auxerre)
- 0.94 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Le Havre / Auxerre)
- 1.20 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Le Havre vs Auxerre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Le Havre goals. Columns: Auxerre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Le Havre vs Auxerre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Le Havre vs Auxerre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Auxerre | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Le Havre or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Auxerre) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Le Havre win by 2+ | 24% | 4.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Le Havre and Auxerre recent form
Le Havre
0W 2D 4L
Auxerre
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Le Havre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Auxerre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Le Havre at home only, Auxerre away only.
Injuries & availability
Le Havre absences
- A. Seko suspended
-
A. Toure
knee injury
- E. Jelert thigh injury
-
F. Mambimbi
achilles tendon injury
-
L. Mpasi-Nzau
achilles tendon injury
- R. Fofana inactive
-
S. Zagadou
knee injury
-
T. Pembele
muscle injury
Auxerre absences
-
A. Diousse
knee injury
-
B. Okoh
knee injury
- C. Akpa injury
-
M. Senaya
hamstring injury
- R. Labeau Lascary injury
- R. Mandengue muscle injury
-
S. Fofana
groin injury
-
T. Siwe
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Le Havre vs Auxerre head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Le Havre 5 · draws 3 · Auxerre 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Le Havre | 1-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Auxerre | 0-1 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Auxerre | 1-2 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Le Havre | 3-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-05-07 | Le Havre | 1-2 | Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
| 2021-12-21 | Auxerre | 2-3 | Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
| 2021-04-05 | Auxerre | 1-1 | Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
| 2020-12-01 | Le Havre | 1-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
| 2020-03-06 | Le Havre | 1-0 | Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
| 2019-10-05 | Auxerre | 2-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Le Mans vs Toulouse 2026-10-16
- Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — match page 2026-10-17
- Lille vs Brest — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Estac Troyes vs Lens 2026-10-17
- Angers v Marseille — match page 2026-10-18
- Lorient vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Paris FC vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lyon vs Nice 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Le Havre, previous: Lille vs Le Havre prediction
- Auxerre, previous: Rennes vs Auxerre prediction