Why this pick: Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, Werder Bremen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: model vs market
| Source | Freiburg | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | +10% | -3% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Freiburg below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 19 snapshots since 2026-08-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 2.01 | 2.02 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.61 | 3.55 | -0.06 |
| Werder Bremen | 3.61 | 3.50 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Freiburg and Werder Bremen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.92
- Attack rating (Freiburg / Werder Bremen)
- 1.41 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Freiburg / Werder Bremen)
- 0.95 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: Werder Bremen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Werder Bremen | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Freiburg or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Werder Bremen) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win by 2+ | 42% | 2.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Freiburg and Werder Bremen recent form
Freiburg
4W 0D 2L
Werder Bremen
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Freiburg absences
-
F. Muslija
knee injury
-
P. Osterhage
muscle injury
-
R. Yamamoto
injury
Werder Bremen absences
-
F. Agu
calf injury
-
K. Topp
knee injury
-
M. Weiser
knee injury
-
O. Wojcik
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Freiburg 5 · draws 0 · Werder Bremen 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Freiburg | 1-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-09-20 | Werder Bremen | 0-3 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-21 | Freiburg | 5-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-05 | Werder Bremen | 0-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-27 | Werder Bremen | 3-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-08-26 | Freiburg | 1-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Augsburg v FC Schalke 04 — match page 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Freiburg, next: SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg: odds and pick
- Werder Bremen, next: Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: odds and pick