Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 1

Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04

· WWK Arena, Augsburg· Referee Sascha Stegemann, Germany

Full time3 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Augsburg to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AugsburgDrawFC Schalke 04

Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAugsburgDrawFC Schalke 04
Model32%27%42%
Market44%25%31%
Published41%25%34%
Edge-12%+1%+10%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Augsburg, 19 snapshots since 2026-08-21.

Opened 2.18Now 2.16 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Augsburg2.182.16-0.02
Draw3.733.74+0.01
FC Schalke 043.093.00-0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Augsburg
1.77FC Schalke 04
Total expected goals
3.52
Attack rating (Augsburg / FC Schalke 04)
1.17 / 1.22
Defence rating (Augsburg / FC Schalke 04)
1.00 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 4.3% 5.5% 3.3% 2.2% 1 3.6% 11.8% 8.7% 5.1% 3.4% 2 4.4% 7.7% 6.9% 4.0% 2.7% 3 2.3% 4.1% 3.6% 2.1% 1.4% 4+ 1.3% 2.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.8%

Rows: Augsburg goals. Columns: FC Schalke 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Augsburg41%2.46
Draw25%3.92
FC Schalke 0434%2.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.88
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.47
No32%3.12
Double chance1X (Augsburg or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or FC Schalke 04)59%1.68
Handicap -1Augsburg win by 2+17%6.00
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Augsburg and FC Schalke 04 recent form

Augsburg 4W 1D 1L
FC Schalke 04 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Augsburg absences

  • S. Mounie injury
  • T. Breithaupt injury

FC Schalke 04 absences

  • E. Hojlund heel injury
  • K. Karaman hip injury
  • T. Kalas lacking match fitness

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match