Juventus vs Lazio preview
Juventus has a 61% probability of winning against Lazio, who sit at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Juventus has an expected goals figure of 2.43, while Lazio's is significantly lower at 0.81. This indicates a potential disparity in offensive output, but it does not guarantee the outcome.
Lazio is currently on a strong run, with 6 consecutive wins, while Juventus has mixed results with 3 wins in their last 6 matches. The head-to-head record over the last 6 encounters shows an even split, with each team securing 2 wins and 2 draws. The confidence grade for this fixture is A, though the recent form of both teams introduces a level of uncertainty.
Why this pick: Juventus vs Lazio
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Juventus 10, Lazio 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Juventus vs Lazio: model vs market
| Source | Juventus | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 20% | 9% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Edge | +14% | -5% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 0.82.
- The market prices Juventus below the model: +13.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Juventus vs Lazio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 36 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 1.64 | 1.67 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.87 | 3.85 | -0.02 |
| Lazio | 5.34 | 5.27 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Juventus and Lazio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.23
- Attack rating (Juventus / Lazio)
- 1.58 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Juventus / Lazio)
- 0.61 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Juventus vs Lazio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Juventus goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Juventus vs Lazio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Juventus vs Lazio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 61% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Lazio | 16% | 6.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| No | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Juventus or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Lazio) | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 50% | 2.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Juventus and Lazio recent form
Juventus
3W 2D 1L
Lazio
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Juventus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Lazio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Juventus at home only, Lazio away only.
Injuries & availability
Juventus absences
-
A. Milik
inactive
-
J. Ekhator
muscle injury
-
K. Grabara
knee injury
-
K. Thuram
knee injury
-
K. Yildiz
foot injury
-
M. Locatelli
knee injury
Lazio absences
-
A. Furlanetto
knee injury
- A. Gudmundsson shoulder injury
-
A. Marusic
muscle injury
- M. Cancellieri leg injury
-
N. Rovella
calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Juventus vs Lazio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Juventus 4 · draws 2 · Lazio 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Juventus | 2-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2025-10-26 | Lazio | 1-0 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2025-05-10 | Lazio | 1-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2024-10-19 | Juventus | 1-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-04-23 | Lazio | 2-1 | Juventus | Coppa Italia |
| 2024-04-02 | Juventus | 2-0 | Lazio | Coppa Italia |
| 2024-03-30 | Lazio | 1-0 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2023-09-16 | Juventus | 3-1 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2023-04-08 | Lazio | 2-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2023-02-02 | Juventus | 1-0 | Lazio | Coppa Italia |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Venezia vs Napoli 2026-10-17
- Bologna vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Roma v Genoa — match page 2026-10-17
- Udinese vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Fiorentina vs Como 2026-10-18
- AC Milan vs Atalanta 2026-10-18
- Monza vs Cagliari 2026-10-19
- Parma Calcio 1913 v Torino — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Juventus, previous: Cagliari vs Juventus: odds and pick
- Lazio, previous: Lazio – Monza, 2026-10-11