Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino preview
Parma Calcio 1913 has a 29% probability of winning, while Torino stands at 41%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, which occurs at a rate of 10%. The expected goals for Parma Calcio 1913 is 1.05, compared to Torino's 1.65.
Both teams to score has a probability of 55%, and over 2.5 goals is forecasted at 51%. Recent form shows Parma with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Torino has 2 wins in the same period. The head-to-head record in the last 4 encounters is evenly matched, with both teams securing 1 win each and 2 draws. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form raises some doubt.
Why this pick: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Parma Calcio 1913 10, Torino 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino: model vs market
| Source | Parma Calcio 1913 | Draw | Torino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 29% | 49% |
| Market | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Published | 27% | 30% | 43% |
| Edge | -6% | -2% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Torino below the model: +8.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.63, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Torino, 36 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 3.20 | 3.36 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.01 | 3.10 | +0.09 |
| Torino | 2.47 | 2.34 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Torino expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Torino)
- 0.74 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Parma Calcio 1913 / Torino)
- 1.43 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Columns: Torino goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 27% | 3.73 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Torino | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Parma Calcio 1913 or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Torino) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Torino win by 2+ | 27% | 3.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Torino recent form
Parma Calcio 1913
1W 1D 4L
Torino
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Parma Calcio 1913 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Torino away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Parma Calcio 1913 at home only, Torino away only.
Injuries & availability
Parma Calcio 1913 absences
- A. Ndiaye knock
-
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
groin injury
- P. Almqvist calf injury
Torino absences
- E. Ilkhan injury
-
F. Israel
shoulder injury
- N. Fortini hernia
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Parma Calcio 1913 1 · draws 2 · Torino 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Torino | 4-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2025-09-29 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2-1 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2025-03-08 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2-2 | Torino | Serie A |
| 2025-01-05 | Torino | 0-0 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
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Before and after this match
- Parma Calcio 1913, previous: Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 prediction
- Torino, previous: Torino vs Udinese: odds and pick
- Torino, next: Torino vs Monza: odds and pick