Why this pick: Fulham vs Hull City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fulham 10, Hull City 7). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Fulham vs Hull City: model vs market
| Source | Fulham | Draw | Hull City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | -14% | +4% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Fulham vs Hull City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fulham, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 1.51 | 1.67 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 4.33 | 3.97 | -0.36 |
| Hull City | 6.25 | 4.95 | -1.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fulham and Hull City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Fulham / Hull City)
- 1.21 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Fulham / Hull City)
- 1.16 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fulham vs Hull City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fulham goals. Columns: Hull City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fulham vs Hull City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fulham vs Hull City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fulham | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Hull City | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fulham or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Hull City) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fulham win by 2+ | 22% | 4.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fulham and Hull City recent form
Fulham
1W 2D 3L
Hull City
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fulham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hull City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fulham at home only, Hull City away only.
Injuries & availability
Fulham absences
-
H. Larsson
groin injury
-
T. Cairney
knee injury
Hull City absences
-
C. Hughes
groin injury
-
D. Gyabi
groin injury
-
E. Matazo
knee injury
-
I. Ansah
back injury
-
J. Butland
arm injury
- L. Gourna-Douath calf injury
- M. Cho muscle injury
-
M. Targett
ankle injury
-
N. Mendy
groin injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Fulham lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 B. Leno
- 33 A. Robinson
- 3 C. Bassey
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 21 T. Castagne
- 19 S. Charles
- 16 S. Berge
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 24 Joshua King
- 14 Oscar Bobb
- 7 Gonzalo García
Bench: K. Tete, J. Andersen, César Palacios, Rodrigo Muniz, T. Cairney, Kevin, Manuel Ángel, B. Lecomte, R. Sessegnon
Hull City lineup · 5-4-1
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 18 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 22 L. Herrington
- 15 J. Egan
- 6 S. Ajayi
- 2 L. Coyle
- 7 S. Thomas
- 27 R. Slater
- 25 M. Crooks
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 9 O. McBurnie
Bench: R. Giles, H. Morita, J. Gelhardt, D. Phillips, J. Hjertø-Dahl, P. McNair, E. Stroud, T. Iroegbunam, R. Vaz
Fulham vs Hull City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fulham 6 · draws 1 · Hull City 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-07 | Hull City | 0-2 | Fulham | FA Cup |
| 2022-02-12 | Hull City | 0-1 | Fulham | Championship |
| 2021-08-21 | Fulham | 2-0 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2020-01-11 | Hull City | 0-1 | Fulham | Championship |
| 2019-11-02 | Fulham | 0-3 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2017-12-30 | Hull City | 2-2 | Fulham | Championship |
| 2017-09-13 | Fulham | 2-1 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2017-01-29 | Fulham | 4-1 | Hull City | FA Cup |
| 2016-01-23 | Fulham | 0-1 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2015-08-19 | Hull City | 2-1 | Fulham | Championship |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Everton vs Chelsea 2026-10-17
- Manchester City vs Ipswich — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Brentford vs Liverpool 2026-10-17
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa — match page 2026-10-17
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace 2026-10-18
- Leeds v Manchester United — match page 2026-10-18
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Fulham, previous: Ipswich – Fulham, 2026-10-10
- Fulham, next: Coventry vs Fulham: odds and pick
- Hull City, previous: Hull City v Everton analysis