Updated

Premier League · Matchday 7

Manchester City vs Ipswich

· Etihad Stadium, Manchester· Referee Farai Hallam

Full time3 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Manchester City to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Manchester CityDrawIpswich

Why this pick: Manchester City vs Ipswich

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester City 10, Ipswich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Manchester CityIpswich
2.00 xG per 90 1.26
2.00 npxG per 90 1.26
9.7 PPDA 13.8
10.0 Deep completions per 90 5.1
1.77 xPTS per 90 1.18

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Manchester City vs Ipswich: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceManchester CityDrawIpswich
Model65%18%17%
Market77%14%9%
Published74%15%11%
Edge-11%+4%+8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.72 vs 1.48.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Manchester City vs Ipswich odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 1.20Now 1.25 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Manchester City1.201.25+0.05
Draw7.206.70-0.50
Ipswich12.7510.38-2.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Manchester City and Ipswich expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.72Manchester City
1.48Ipswich
Total expected goals
4.20
Attack rating (Manchester City / Ipswich)
1.47 / 1.15
Defence rating (Manchester City / Ipswich)
1.04 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manchester City vs Ipswich score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 1 2.9% 6.4% 4.1% 2.0% 1.0% 2 5.3% 7.9% 5.9% 2.9% 1.5% 3 5.1% 7.5% 5.6% 2.8% 1.4% 4+ 7.2% 10.8% 8.0% 3.9% 2.0%

Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Ipswich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manchester City vs Ipswich goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 81%
Over 3.5 63%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Manchester City vs Ipswich

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Manchester City74%1.36
Draw15%6.58
Ipswich11%8.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581%1.24
Under 2.519%5.18
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.36
No26%3.79
Double chance1X (Manchester City or draw)89%1.13
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or Ipswich)26%3.80
Handicap -1Manchester City win by 2+46%2.16
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Manchester City and Ipswich recent form

Manchester City 5W 0D 1L
Ipswich 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Manchester City at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

Ipswich away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
2.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester City at home only, Ipswich away only.

Injuries & availability

Ipswich absences

  • J. Taylor knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Manchester City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 G. Donnarumma
  2. 33 N. O'Reilly
  3. 6 M. Guéhi
  4. 3 Rúben Dias
  5. 27 Matheus Nunes
  6. 32 A. Bouaddi
  7. 8 M. Kovačić
  8. 11 J. Doku
  9. 47 P. Foden
  10. 7 I. Ndiaye
  11. 9 E. Haaland

Bench: E. Anderson, R. Cherki, E. Fernández, R. Aït-Nouri, J. Gvardiol, G. Rulli, Allan, A. Semenyo, A. Khusanov

Ipswich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 28 C. Walton
  2. 3 L. Davis
  3. 24 J. Greaves
  4. 6 I. Diop
  5. 26 D. O'Shea
  6. 25 E. Palacios
  7. 12 Florentino
  8. 38 D. Maeda
  9. 10 J. Enciso
  10. 42 A. Ouattara
  11. 19 Emersonn

Bench: D. Furlong, C. Kipré, A. Matusiwa, A. Fatawu, Z. Flemming, J. Philogene, C. Akpom, K. Scherpen, J. Clarke

Manchester City vs Ipswich head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Manchester City 2 · draws 0 · Ipswich 0.

Manchester CityDrawsIpswich
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-01-19Ipswich0-6Manchester CityPremier League
2024-08-24Manchester City4-1IpswichPremier League

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match