Updated

Premier League · Matchday 7

Brentford vs Liverpool

· Gtech Community Stadium, London· Referee John Brooks

Full time1 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Brentford to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BrentfordDrawLiverpool

Why this pick: Brentford vs Liverpool

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brentford 10, Liverpool 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BrentfordLiverpool
1.72 xG per 90 1.71
1.63 npxG per 90 1.61
9.9 PPDA 8.8
6.4 Deep completions per 90 5.9
1.23 xPTS per 90 1.56

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Brentford vs Liverpool: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBrentfordDrawLiverpool
Model48%21%32%
Market40%26%34%
Published42%25%34%
Edge+8%-5%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 2.04.
  • The market prices Brentford below the model: +8.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Brentford vs Liverpool odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brentford, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 2.61Now 2.44 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Brentford2.612.44-0.18
Draw3.773.69-0.08
Liverpool2.422.79+0.37

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brentford and Liverpool expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.35Brentford
2.04Liverpool
Total expected goals
4.40
Attack rating (Brentford / Liverpool)
1.37 / 1.44
Defence rating (Brentford / Liverpool)
1.14 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brentford vs Liverpool score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.9% 1.4% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% 1 1.9% 6.4% 5.6% 3.8% 3.2% 2 3.3% 6.8% 7.0% 4.8% 3.9% 3 2.8% 5.6% 5.7% 3.9% 3.2% 4+ 3.1% 6.3% 6.4% 4.4% 3.6%

Rows: Brentford goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brentford vs Liverpool goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 83%
Over 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
80%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brentford vs Liverpool

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Brentford42%2.41
Draw25%4.04
Liverpool34%2.96
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583%1.21
Under 2.517%5.81
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.24
No20%5.13
Double chance1X (Brentford or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Liverpool)58%1.71
Handicap -1Brentford win by 2+30%3.36
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Brentford and Liverpool recent form

Brentford 2W 4D 0L
Liverpool 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Brentford at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Liverpool away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Brentford at home only, Liverpool away only.

Injuries & availability

Brentford absences

  • A. Milambo knock
  • J. Dasilva muscle injury
  • J. Schuster ankle injury
  • K. Furo surgery
  • K. Schade injury
  • M. Damsgaard ankle injury
  • N. Collins calf injury

Liverpool absences

  • A. Isak thigh injury
  • C. Bradley knee injury
  • C. Gakpo ankle injury
  • D. Szoboszlai hamstring injury
  • G. Leoni knee injury
  • H. Ekitike achilles tendon injury
  • R. Gravenberch suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Brentford lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 C. Kelleher
  2. 23 K. Lewis-Potter
  3. 4 S. van den Berg
  4. 20 K. Ajer
  5. 33 M. Kayode
  6. 27 V. Janelt
  7. 6 Y. Yarmolyuk
  8. 19 J. Anthony
  9. 8 M. Jensen
  10. 11 D. Ouattara
  11. 9 Thiago

Bench: A. Hickey, K. Schade, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson, Fábio Carvalho, M. Sangaré, N. Collins, M. Damsgaard, E. Diouf

Liverpool lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Alisson Becker
  2. 6 M. Kerkez
  3. 4 V. van Dijk
  4. 5 J. Jacquet
  5. 33 R. Araújo
  6. 10 A. Mac Allister
  7. 8 D. Szoboszlai
  8. 29 B. Barcola
  9. 7 F. Wirtz
  10. 23 Víctor Muñoz
  11. 9 A. Isak

Bench: J. Gomez, W. Endo, C. Gakpo, K. Tsimikas, G. Mamardashvili, J. Frimpong, T. Nyoni, L. Koumas, R. Ngumoha

Brentford vs Liverpool head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Brentford 2 · draws 2 · Liverpool 6.

BrentfordDrawsLiverpool
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-24Liverpool1-1BrentfordPremier League
2025-10-25Brentford3-2LiverpoolPremier League
2025-01-18Brentford0-2LiverpoolPremier League
2024-08-25Liverpool2-0BrentfordPremier League
2024-02-17Brentford1-4LiverpoolPremier League
2023-11-12Liverpool3-0BrentfordPremier League
2023-05-06Liverpool1-0BrentfordPremier League
2023-01-02Brentford3-1LiverpoolPremier League
2022-01-16Liverpool3-0BrentfordPremier League
2021-09-25Brentford3-3LiverpoolPremier League

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match