Updated

Premier League · Matchday 7

Everton vs Chelsea

· Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool· Referee Paul Tierney

Full time0 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Everton to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
EvertonDrawChelsea

Why this pick: Everton vs Chelsea

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Everton 10, Chelsea 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

EvertonChelsea
1.65 xG per 90 1.44
1.65 npxG per 90 1.44
14.0 PPDA 13.8
6.6 Deep completions per 90 7.9
1.37 xPTS per 90 1.06

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Everton vs Chelsea: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEvertonDrawChelsea
Model60%20%19%
Market31%26%44%
Published38%24%38%
Edge+29%-5%-24%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.42.
  • The market prices Everton below the model: +29.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Everton vs Chelsea odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Everton, 55 snapshots since 2026-09-20.

Opened 3.10Now 3.13 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Everton3.103.13+0.03
Draw3.603.75+0.15
Chelsea2.202.20+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Everton and Chelsea expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.39Everton
1.42Chelsea
Total expected goals
3.81
Attack rating (Everton / Chelsea)
1.24 / 1.22
Defence rating (Everton / Chelsea)
0.94 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Everton vs Chelsea score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 1.7% 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 1 3.9% 8.1% 5.0% 2.4% 1.1% 2 6.2% 8.8% 6.2% 3.0% 1.4% 3 5.2% 7.3% 5.2% 2.5% 1.2% 4+ 5.9% 8.4% 5.9% 2.8% 1.4%

Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Everton vs Chelsea goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Everton vs Chelsea

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Everton38%2.63
Draw24%4.11
Chelsea38%2.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.02
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.41
No29%3.42
Double chance1X (Everton or draw)62%1.60
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Chelsea)62%1.61
Handicap -1Everton win by 2+40%2.48
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Everton and Chelsea recent form

Everton 2W 4D 0L
Chelsea 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Everton at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Chelsea away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Everton at home only, Chelsea away only.

Injuries & availability

Everton absences

  • V. Mykolenko knock

Chelsea absences

  • E. Emegha muscle injury
  • J. Gittens ankle injury
  • R. James knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Everton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Pickford
  2. 16 V. Mykolenko
  3. 4 J. Branthwaite
  4. 6 J. Tarkowski
  5. 2 A. Maitland-Niles
  6. 45 H. Armstrong
  7. 37 J. Garner
  8. 10 J. Grealish
  9. 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
  10. 34 M. Röhl
  11. 11 T. Barry

Bench: M. Travers, J. O'Brien, Tyrique George, T. Dibling, B. Johnson, C. Nørgaard, C. Alcaraz, H. Hackney, B. Graham

Chelsea lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 E. Martínez
  2. 6 L. Colwill
  3. 5 M. Lacroix
  4. 34 Joshua Kofi Acheampong
  5. 21 J. Hato
  6. 25 M. Caicedo
  7. 14 J. Henderson
  8. 7 Pedro Neto
  9. 17 M. Rogers
  10. 10 C. Palmer
  11. 9 João Pedro

Bench: M. Palestra, W. Fofana, V. Barco, D. Welbeck, Geovany Tcherno Quenda, M. Nicoll-Jazuli, M. Penders, Estêvão, R. Lavia

Everton vs Chelsea head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Everton 3 · draws 3 · Chelsea 4.

EvertonDrawsChelsea
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Everton3-0ChelseaPremier League
2025-12-13Chelsea2-0EvertonPremier League
2025-04-26Chelsea1-0EvertonPremier League
2024-12-22Everton0-0ChelseaPremier League
2024-04-15Chelsea6-0EvertonPremier League
2023-12-10Everton2-0ChelseaPremier League
2023-03-18Chelsea2-2EvertonPremier League
2022-08-06Everton0-1ChelseaPremier League
2022-05-01Everton1-0ChelseaPremier League
2021-12-16Chelsea1-1EvertonPremier League

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match