Lorient vs Paris FC preview
Lorient has a 29% chance of winning, while Paris FC stands at 43%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% probability. Lorient's expected goals are 1.16 compared to Paris FC's 1.57. Both teams to score is at 53%, indicating a slight inclination towards goals from both sides.
Recent form shows Lorient with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Paris FC has 5 wins in their last 6. The head-to-head record is balanced with 1 win each and 1 draw in the last 3 encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of Lorient raises questions about their ability to perform.
Why this pick: Lorient vs Paris FC
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lorient 10, Paris FC 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lorient vs Paris FC: model vs market
| Source | Lorient | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 42% |
| Published | 29% | 28% | 44% |
| Edge | -3% | -3% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Paris FC below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lorient vs Paris FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 2.88 | 3.25 | +0.37 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.37 | -0.12 |
| Paris FC | 2.42 | 2.25 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lorient and Paris FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Lorient / Paris FC)
- 0.94 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Lorient / Paris FC)
- 1.00 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lorient vs Paris FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lorient goals. Columns: Paris FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lorient vs Paris FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lorient vs Paris FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 29% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Paris FC | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lorient or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Paris FC) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win by 2+ | 25% | 4.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lorient and Paris FC recent form
Lorient
1W 2D 3L
Paris FC
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lorient at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Paris FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lorient at home only, Paris FC away only.
Injuries & availability
Lorient
-
B. Fadiga
ankle injury
-
N. Mbamba
muscle injury
-
P. Katseris
hamstring injury
Paris FC
-
E. Mbemba
leg injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Lorient vs Paris FC head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Lorient 5 · draws 2 · Paris FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Lorient | 1-1 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Lorient | 2-0 | Paris FC | Coupe de France |
| 2025-10-03 | Paris FC | 2-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Paris FC | 3-2 | Lorient | Ligue 2 |
| 2024-12-14 | Lorient | 2-0 | Paris FC | Ligue 2 |
| 2021-02-09 | Lorient | 2-1 | Paris FC | Coupe de France |
| 2019-07-29 | Lorient | 3-0 | Paris FC | Ligue 2 |
| 2019-04-15 | Paris FC | 2-2 | Lorient | Ligue 2 |
| 2018-11-09 | Lorient | 2-1 | Paris FC | Ligue 2 |
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