Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans preview
Paris Saint Germain has an 80% probability of winning against Le Mans, while Le Mans stands at 9%. The expected goals for Paris Saint Germain is 2.25 compared to Le Mans's 1.48. This suggests a potential scoreline of 2-1, which has a 9% likelihood according to the model. However, the recent form shows Paris Saint Germain with three wins in their last six matches, while Le Mans has two wins in the same period.
The model indicates a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance that both teams will score. This highlights an expectation of attacking play, but the confidence grade is only B, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. The head-to-head record shows Paris Saint Germain winning the last encounter, but this does not guarantee a repeat performance.
Why this pick: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris Saint Germain 10, Le Mans 5). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: model vs market
| Source | Paris Saint Germain | Draw | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 21% | 26% |
| Market | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| Published | 79% | 11% | 10% |
| Edge | -35% | +13% | +22% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.08 | 1.08 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 12.36 | 12.00 | -0.36 |
| Le Mans | 22.00 | 23.00 | +1.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Paris Saint Germain / Le Mans)
- 1.60 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Paris Saint Germain / Le Mans)
- 0.98 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Paris Saint Germain goals. Columns: Le Mans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 79% | 1.27 |
| Draw | 11% | 8.88 | |
| Le Mans | 10% | 10.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Paris Saint Germain or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 89% | 1.13 | |
| X2 (draw or Le Mans) | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans recent form
Paris Saint Germain
3W 2D 1L
Le Mans
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Paris Saint Germain at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Le Mans away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain at home only, Le Mans away only.
Injuries & availability
Paris Saint Germain
-
F. Torres
ankle injury
-
N. Mendes
rest
-
O. Dembele
rest
- S. Mayulu groin injury
- W. Zaire-Emery thigh injury
Le Mans
-
A. Bourabaa
ankle injury
-
D. Sidibe
yellow cards
-
E. Colas
injury
-
L. Buades
knock
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 3 · draws 0 · Le Mans 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-04 | Le Mans | 0-2 | Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de France |
| 2021-07-14 | Paris Saint Germain | 4-0 | Le Mans | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2019-12-18 | Le Mans | 1-4 | Paris Saint Germain | Coupe de la Ligue |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Lens vs Lyon 2026-10-09
- Lille v Le Havre — match page 2026-10-10
- Monaco v Toulouse — match page 2026-10-10
- Lorient vs Paris FC 2026-10-10
- Brest v Angers — match page 2026-10-10
- Nice vs Strasbourg — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Rennes vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Estac Troyes vs Marseille — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Le Mans, next: Le Mans – Toulouse, 2026-10-16