Brest vs Angers preview
Brest has a 49% probability of winning against Angers, who share a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Brest, with an expected goals tally of 2.13 for Brest compared to 1.32 for Angers. Brest's recent form shows 2 losses followed by 3 draws, while Angers has 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches.
Both teams to score stands at 64%, and there is a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored. Brest has won 2 of the last 4 encounters, with Angers winning 1 and 1 match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this match is A, but the recent form of both teams raises some uncertainty.
Why this pick: Brest vs Angers
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brest 10, Angers 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brest vs Angers: model vs market
| Source | Brest | Draw | Angers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | +6% | -4% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.32.
- The market prices Brest below the model: +5.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Brest vs Angers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brest, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | 1.94 | 2.00 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.62 | -0.12 |
| Angers | 3.80 | 3.64 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brest and Angers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.45
- Attack rating (Brest / Angers)
- 1.14 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Brest / Angers)
- 1.08 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brest vs Angers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brest goals. Columns: Angers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brest vs Angers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brest vs Angers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brest | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Angers | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brest or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Angers) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brest win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brest and Angers recent form
Brest
1W 3D 2L
Angers
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Angers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brest at home only, Angers away only.
Injuries & availability
Brest
-
B. Chardonnet
calf injury
- G. Versini leg injury
-
M. Diambou
ankle injury
-
R. Cagnon
shoulder injury
- R. Le Guen broken leg
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Brest vs Angers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Brest 7 · draws 1 · Angers 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Brest | 1-1 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Angers | 0-2 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Brest | 2-0 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Angers | 2-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-06 | Brest | 1-0 | Angers | Coupe de France |
| 2023-01-29 | Brest | 4-0 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-08-21 | Angers | 1-3 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-07-20 | Angers | 0-2 | Brest | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-07-20 | Brest | 2-0 | Angers | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-03-20 | Angers | 1-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
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