Udinese vs Lecce preview
Udinese has a 53% probability of winning against Lecce, who sit at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Udinese's expected goals stand at 2.43, compared to Lecce's 1.31. Both teams to score has a 68% likelihood, while over 2.5 goals sits at 72%.
Recent form shows Udinese with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Lecce has two wins and four losses in their last six. The head-to-head record favours Udinese, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 win for Lecce in the last six encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of both teams introduces uncertainty.
Why this pick: Udinese vs Lecce
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Udinese 10, Lecce 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Udinese vs Lecce: model vs market
| Source | Udinese | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 23% | 21% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 21% |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | +4% | -4% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.38.
- The market prices Udinese below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Udinese vs Lecce odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Udinese, 36 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese | 1.85 | 1.83 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.61 | -0.03 |
| Lecce | 4.20 | 4.50 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Udinese and Lecce expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.69
- Attack rating (Udinese / Lecce)
- 1.05 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Udinese / Lecce)
- 1.27 / 1.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Udinese vs Lecce score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Udinese goals. Columns: Lecce goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Udinese vs Lecce goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Udinese vs Lecce
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Lecce | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Udinese or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Lecce) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Udinese win by 2+ | 37% | 2.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Udinese and Lecce recent form
Udinese
2W 0D 4L
Lecce
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Udinese at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Lecce away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Udinese at home only, Lecce away only.
Injuries & availability
Udinese absences
-
A. Zanoli
muscle injury
- I. Gueye ankle injury
- J. Abankwah injury
-
J. Piotrowski
heart problems
-
N. Zaniolo
thigh injury
- V. Bayo thigh injury
Lecce absences
-
I. Ilic
thigh injury
-
M. Berisha
lacking match fitness
- N. Stulic muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Udinese vs Lecce head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Udinese 5 · draws 2 · Lecce 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Lecce | 2-1 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2025-10-25 | Udinese | 3-2 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2025-02-21 | Lecce | 0-1 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2024-10-05 | Udinese | 1-0 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2024-05-13 | Lecce | 0-2 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2023-10-23 | Udinese | 1-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2023-04-28 | Lecce | 1-0 | Udinese | Serie A |
| 2022-12-23 | Udinese | 2-0 | Lecce | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-11-04 | Udinese | 1-1 | Lecce | Serie A |
| 2020-07-29 | Udinese | 1-2 | Lecce | Serie A |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Venezia vs Napoli 2026-10-17
- Bologna vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Roma v Genoa — match page 2026-10-17
- Fiorentina vs Como 2026-10-18
- AC Milan vs Atalanta 2026-10-18
- Juventus vs Lazio — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Monza vs Cagliari 2026-10-19
- Parma Calcio 1913 v Torino — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Udinese, previous: Torino vs Udinese: odds and pick
- Lecce, previous: Lecce – Bologna, 2026-10-11