Levante vs Athletic Club preview
Levante has a 40% probability of winning, while Athletic Club stands at 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring 8% of the time. Both teams are expected to score, with a 71% probability, and there is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Levante's recent form shows 2 draws, 1 win, and 3 losses, contrasting with Athletic Club's 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. In their last 10 encounters, Levante has not secured a win, with 3 draws and 7 losses to Athletic Club. The expected goals are closely matched, with Levante at 1.77 and Athletic Club at 1.74, but the head-to-head record raises questions about Levante's ability to overcome their opponents.
Why this pick: Levante vs Athletic Club
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Levante 10, Athletic Club 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Levante vs Athletic Club: model vs market
| Source | Levante | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 3.45, recorded — the top price across the 14 books we record, each at its own last update.
Levante vs Athletic Club odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Levante, 26 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 3.27 | 3.30 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.50 | -0.08 |
| Athletic Club | 2.33 | 2.15 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Levante and Athletic Club expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (Levante / Athletic Club)
- 1.21 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Levante / Athletic Club)
- 1.30 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Levante vs Athletic Club score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Levante goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Levante vs Athletic Club goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Levante vs Athletic Club
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levante | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Athletic Club | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Levante or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Athletic Club) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Levante win by 2+ | 22% | 4.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Levante and Athletic Club recent form
Levante
1W 2D 3L
Athletic Club
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Levante at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Athletic Club away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Levante at home only, Athletic Club away only.
Injuries & availability
Levante
-
A. Primo
shoulder injury
-
H. Sotelo
knee injury
-
K. Etta Eyong
injury
Athletic Club
-
D. Vivian
hamstring injury
-
G. Guruzeta
hamstring injury
-
P. Canales
muscle injury
-
U. Egiluz
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Levante · 4-3-3
- 13 M. Ryan
- 23 Manu Sánchez
- 3 IfeanyiIfeanyi Ndukwe
- 4 Dela
- 29 Nacho Pérez
- 18 E. Bardeli
- 20 Oriol Rey
- 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti
- 24 T. Fernández
- 9 Iván Romero
- 27 Paco Cortés
Bench: Pablo Cuñat, A. Mandi, Reque, Brugui, P. Ratkov, Yanis Musuayi, Jorge Cabello, A. Tape, Víctor García, J. Toljan, M. Santos, I. Galdin
Athletic Club · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Unai Simón
- 17 Yuri
- 14 Aymeric Laporte
- 4 Aitor Paredes
- 31 J. Louis-Jean
- 18 Mikel Jauregizar
- 16 Ruíz de Galarreta
- 7 Álex Berenguer
- 8 Oihan Sancet
- 23 Robert Navarro
- 21 Maroan Sannadi
Bench: Yeray, Beñat Prados, I. Williams, Nico Williams, Gorka Guruzeta, Jesús Areso, Álex Padilla, Hugo Rincón, Alejandro Rego, Nico Serrano, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Álvaro Djaló
Levante vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Levante 0 · draws 3 · Athletic Club 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Athletic Club | 4-2 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2025-11-29 | Levante | 0-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2022-03-07 | Athletic Club | 3-1 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2021-11-19 | Levante | 0-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2021-03-04 | Levante | 1-2 | Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| 2021-02-26 | Levante | 1-1 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2021-02-11 | Athletic Club | 1-1 | Levante | Copa del Rey |
| 2020-10-18 | Athletic Club | 2-0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2020-07-12 | Levante | 1-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2019-11-10 | Athletic Club | 2-1 | Levante | La Liga |
Before and after this match
- Levante, previous: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante: odds and pick
- Athletic Club, previous: Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club analysis