Updated

La Liga · Matchday 9

Villarreal vs Elche

· Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal· Referee Victor Garcia Verdura

Full time0 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Villarreal to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VillarrealDrawElche

Why this pick: Villarreal vs Elche

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Elche 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VillarrealElche
2.52 xG per 90 1.17
2.24 npxG per 90 1.10
10.1 PPDA 12.4
14.4 Deep completions per 90 4.8
1.74 xPTS per 90 1.21

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Villarreal vs Elche: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVillarrealDrawElche
Model74%16%10%
Market66%19%14%
Published68%18%13%
Edge+7%-4%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.94 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Villarreal below the model: +7.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Villarreal vs Elche odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.46Now 1.43 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Villarreal1.461.43-0.03
Draw4.834.94+0.11
Elche6.046.64+0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Villarreal and Elche expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.94Villarreal
1.19Elche
Total expected goals
4.13
Attack rating (Villarreal / Elche)
1.56 / 0.93
Defence rating (Villarreal / Elche)
1.11 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Villarreal vs Elche score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1 3.3% 6.1% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 2 6.6% 7.9% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 3 6.8% 8.1% 4.8% 1.9% 0.7% 4+ 11.2% 13.4% 8.0% 3.2% 1.2%

Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Elche goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Villarreal vs Elche goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Villarreal vs Elche

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Villarreal68%1.46
Draw18%5.45
Elche13%7.50
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%4.98
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.48
No33%3.07
Double chance1X (Villarreal or draw)87%1.15
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Elche)32%3.16
Handicap -1Villarreal win by 2+56%1.78
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Villarreal and Elche recent form

Villarreal 3W 0D 3L
Elche 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Villarreal at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Elche away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Villarreal at home only, Elche away only.

Injuries & availability

Villarreal absences

  • N. Pepe eye injury
  • T. Buchanan muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Villarreal lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 25 P. Gulácsi
  2. 23 Sergi Cardona
  3. 2 Logan Costa
  4. 8 J. Foyth
  5. 3 A. Freeman
  6. 10 Alberto Moleiro
  7. 16 C. Macia
  8. 14 Santi Comesaña
  9. 11 Ilias Akhomach
  10. 21 T. Oluwaseyi
  11. 22 Ayoze Pérez

Bench: Luíz Júnior, A. Diatta, Pau Navarro, Gerard Moreno, G. Mikautadze, Renato Veiga, S. Mouriño, P. Gueye, Carlos Romero, N. Saliba, N. El Jmili

Elche lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 M. Dituro
  2. 11 Germán Valera
  3. 3 R. Revivo
  4. 23 Víctor Chust
  5. 47 J. Morcillo
  6. 2 Buba Sangaré
  7. 18 T. Lemar
  8. 8 Marc Aguado
  9. 12 Gonzalo Villar
  10. 21 L. Cepeda
  11. 24 A. Osorio

Bench: F. Redondo, Bigas, E. Ponce, F. Buonanotte, Alejandro Iturbe, Fer Niño, K. Lomónaco, Martim Neto, Josan, Tete Morente, Rubén Sánchez, Ali Houary

Villarreal vs Elche head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Villarreal 5 · draws 3 · Elche 2.

VillarrealDrawsElche
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-08Villarreal2-1ElcheLa Liga
2026-01-03Elche1-3VillarrealLa Liga
2023-02-04Elche3-1VillarrealLa Liga
2022-09-04Villarreal4-0ElcheLa Liga
2022-01-16Elche1-0VillarrealLa Liga
2021-09-22Villarreal4-1ElcheLa Liga
2021-02-06Elche2-2VillarrealLa Liga
2020-12-06Villarreal0-0ElcheLa Liga
2015-05-10Villarreal1-0ElcheLa Liga
2015-01-03Elche2-2VillarrealLa Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match