Real Madrid vs Sevilla preview
Real Madrid has a 75% probability of winning against Sevilla, who sit at just 10%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance, while the expected goals for Real Madrid is 2.66 compared to Sevilla's 1.05. This suggests a significant disparity in offensive output, but it does not guarantee a clear outcome.
Recent form shows Real Madrid with 5 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Sevilla has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. The head-to-head record also favours Real Madrid, with 5 wins and 1 draw in the last 6 encounters. The confidence grade is A, yet the lack of recent victories for Sevilla raises questions about their ability to compete effectively.
Why this pick: Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Madrid 10, Sevilla 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: model vs market
| Source | Real Madrid | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 17% | 10% |
| Market | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Published | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Edge | -5% | +3% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.27, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 1.26 | 1.25 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 5.25 | 6.71 | +1.46 |
| Sevilla | 11.50 | 11.66 | +0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Madrid and Sevilla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.72
- Attack rating (Real Madrid / Sevilla)
- 1.58 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Real Madrid / Sevilla)
- 0.99 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Madrid vs Sevilla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 76% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.62 | |
| Sevilla | 9% | 11.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Madrid or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Sevilla) | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win by 2+ | 53% | 1.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Real Madrid and Sevilla recent form
Real Madrid
5W 0D 1L
Sevilla
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Madrid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sevilla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Madrid at home only, Sevilla away only.
Injuries & availability
Real Madrid absences
-
Eder Militao
hamstring injury
-
F. Mendy
hip injury
-
R. Asencio
broken leg
-
Rodrygo
knee injury
-
Vinicius Junior
suspended
Sevilla absences
- G. Kochorashvili injury
-
I. Romero
suspended
- J. Guridi muscle injury
- M. Sierra shoulder injury
-
Marcao
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Real Madrid 9 · draws 1 · Sevilla 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Sevilla | 0-1 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-12-20 | Real Madrid | 2-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-05-18 | Sevilla | 0-2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-12-22 | Real Madrid | 4-2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2024-02-25 | Real Madrid | 1-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2023-10-21 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2023-05-27 | Sevilla | 1-2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2022-10-22 | Real Madrid | 3-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2022-04-17 | Sevilla | 2-3 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2021-11-28 | Real Madrid | 2-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Valencia vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves 2026-10-18
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-10-18
- Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Real Madrid, previous: Real Madrid vs Villarreal: odds and pick
- Sevilla, previous: Levante vs Sevilla: odds and pick