Why this pick: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Deportivo La Coruna 7, Levante 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo La Coruna | Draw | Levante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | +10% | -3% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo La Coruna below the model: +10.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo La Coruna, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | 2.08 | 2.10 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.45 | -0.03 |
| Levante | 3.54 | 3.45 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo La Coruna and Levante expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.36
- Attack rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Levante)
- 0.99 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Levante)
- 0.93 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Columns: Levante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Coruna | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Levante | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo La Coruna or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Levante) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo La Coruna win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Deportivo La Coruna and Levante recent form
Deportivo La Coruna
2W 3D 1L
Levante
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo La Coruna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levante away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna at home only, Levante away only.
Before and after this match
- Deportivo La Coruna, previous: Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction
- Levante, previous: Levante vs Sevilla: odds and pick
- Levante, next: Levante vs Athletic Club prediction