Updated

La Liga · Matchday 9

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

· RCDE Stadium, Cornella· Referee Alejandro Hernandez

Full time0 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Atletico Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
EspanyolDrawAtletico Madrid

Why this pick: Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Espanyol 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

EspanyolAtletico Madrid
1.39 xG per 90 1.96
1.39 npxG per 90 1.78
13.3 PPDA 10.3
6.2 Deep completions per 90 10.8
1.44 xPTS per 90 1.86

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEspanyolDrawAtletico Madrid
Model32%29%38%
Market20%24%56%
Published23%25%52%
Edge+12%+5%-18%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.85Now 1.71 -0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Espanyol4.144.85+0.71
Draw3.704.03+0.33
Atletico Madrid1.851.71-0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Espanyol and Atletico Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.32Espanyol
1.52Atletico Madrid
Total expected goals
2.84
Attack rating (Espanyol / Atletico Madrid)
0.95 / 1.34
Defence rating (Espanyol / Atletico Madrid)
0.99 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 6.0% 6.3% 3.2% 1.7% 1 5.2% 13.8% 8.8% 4.5% 2.4% 2 5.2% 8.0% 6.1% 3.1% 1.6% 3 2.4% 3.7% 2.8% 1.4% 0.8% 4+ 1.1% 1.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Espanyol goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Espanyol23%4.36
Draw25%3.96
Atletico Madrid52%1.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.80
Under 2.544%2.25
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.56
Double chance1X (Espanyol or draw)48%2.07
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid)77%1.30
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win by 2+20%5.01
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Espanyol and Atletico Madrid recent form

Espanyol 1W 2D 3L
Atletico Madrid 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Espanyol at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Madrid away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Espanyol at home only, Atletico Madrid away only.

Injuries & availability

Espanyol absences

  • Jofre groin injury
  • K. Garcia hamstring injury

Atletico Madrid absences

  • J. Cardoso illness
  • Koke muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Espanyol lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Ángel Fortuño
  2. 21 Roger Hinojo
  3. 6 L. Cabrera
  4. 5 C. Riedel
  5. 16 V. Drkušić
  6. 23 O. El Hilali
  7. 15 Bryan Zaragoza
  8. 10 Pol Lozano
  9. 8 Edu Expósito
  10. 28 Javier Hernandez
  11. 9 Roberto Fernández

Bench: Gorosabel, Q. Hartman, Urko González, Javi Puado, Pere Milla, M. Dmitrović, Unai Núñez, Marcos Fernández, Gabriel Moscardo, Álex Calatrava, T. Dolan, Rafel Bauzà

Atletico Madrid lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 J. Oblak
  2. 30 Dani Martínez
  3. 17 D. Hancko
  4. 21 C. Romero
  5. 18 Marc Pubill
  6. 7 Lee Kang-In
  7. 23 M. Hjulmand
  8. 8 Pablo Barrios
  9. 20 G. Simeone
  10. 11 A. Lookman
  11. 15 J. David

Bench: J. Musso, O. Vargas, Rodrigo Mendoza, A. Sørloth, Álex Baena, Marcos Llorente, Arnau Ortiz, J. Álvarez, Álex Grimaldo, Robin Le Normand, J. Dominguez, J. Castillo

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Espanyol 1 · draws 5 · Atletico Madrid 4.

EspanyolDrawsAtletico Madrid
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-21Atletico Madrid4-2EspanyolLa Liga
2025-08-17Espanyol2-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2025-03-29Espanyol1-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2024-08-28Atletico Madrid0-0EspanyolLa Liga
2023-05-24Espanyol3-3Atletico MadridLa Liga
2022-11-06Atletico Madrid1-1EspanyolLa Liga
2022-04-17Atletico Madrid2-1EspanyolLa Liga
2021-09-12Espanyol1-2Atletico MadridLa Liga
2020-03-01Espanyol1-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2019-11-10Atletico Madrid3-1EspanyolLa Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match