Osasuna vs Racing Santander preview
Osasuna has a 48% probability of winning, while Racing Santander stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance according to the model. Both teams have a 74% probability of scoring, and the expected goals are 2.05 for Osasuna and 1.68 for Racing Santander.
Recent form shows Osasuna with one win in their last six matches, while Racing Santander has two wins in their last six. The confidence grade is A, indicating strong reliability in the predictions. However, the recent performances of both teams raise questions about the accuracy of the expected outcomes.
Why this pick: Osasuna vs Racing Santander
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Osasuna 10, Racing Santander 8). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander: model vs market
| Source | Osasuna | Draw | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | -1% | -2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.69.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Osasuna, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1.90 | 2.00 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.41 | 3.77 | +0.36 |
| Racing Santander | 4.30 | 3.66 | -0.64 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Osasuna and Racing Santander expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.73
- Attack rating (Osasuna / Racing Santander)
- 0.95 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Osasuna / Racing Santander)
- 1.23 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Osasuna goals. Columns: Racing Santander goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Osasuna vs Racing Santander
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Osasuna | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Racing Santander | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.36 |
| No | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Osasuna or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Racing Santander) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Osasuna win by 2+ | 29% | 3.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Osasuna and Racing Santander recent form
Osasuna
1W 1D 4L
Racing Santander
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Osasuna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Santander away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Osasuna at home only, Racing Santander away only.
Injuries & availability
Osasuna absences
- A. Bonel inactive
-
A. Oroz
injury
-
J. Herrando
muscle injury
- K. Barja muscle injury
- R. Del Castillo muscle injury
- R. Moro muscle injury
Racing Santander absences
-
S. Eriksson
shoulder injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Osasuna vs Racing Santander head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Osasuna 3 · draws 0 · Racing Santander 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Osasuna | 2-0 | Racing Santander | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-08-02 | Osasuna | 0-1 | Racing Santander | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2012-05-13 | Racing Santander | 2-4 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2012-01-15 | Osasuna | 0-2 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
| 2011-03-13 | Osasuna | 3-1 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
| 2010-10-31 | Racing Santander | 4-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Valencia vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves 2026-10-18
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla 2026-10-18
- Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Osasuna, previous: Real Betis vs Osasuna prediction
- Racing Santander, previous: Racing Santander – Valencia, 2026-10-11
- Racing Santander, next: Racing Santander vs Espanyol prediction