Celta Vigo vs Alaves preview
Celta Vigo has a 44% probability of winning, while Alaves stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which occurs at a 9% likelihood. Celta Vigo's expected goals are 1.17 compared to Alaves' 1.11, indicating a slight edge in attacking potential. However, the recent form shows Celta Vigo with 3 draws in their last 6 matches, while Alaves has won 2 of their last 6, introducing uncertainty in the outcome.
Both teams to score is predicted at 50%, suggesting a balanced chance for each side to find the net. The head-to-head record is also even, with both teams having 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 encounters. The confidence grade is A, but this does not eliminate the unpredictability of the match.
Why this pick: Celta Vigo vs Alaves
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Celta Vigo 10, Alaves 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Celta Vigo vs Alaves: model vs market
| Source | Celta Vigo | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Published | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Edge | -9% | +4% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Celta Vigo vs Alaves odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celta Vigo, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 2.00 | 2.20 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.32 | -0.08 |
| Alaves | 3.87 | 3.42 | -0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celta Vigo and Alaves expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Alaves)
- 0.78 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Alaves)
- 1.00 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celta Vigo vs Alaves score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celta Vigo vs Alaves goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celta Vigo vs Alaves
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 41% | 2.42 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Alaves | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.98 |
| No | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celta Vigo or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Alaves) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celta Vigo win by 2+ | 16% | 6.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Celta Vigo and Alaves recent form
Celta Vigo
1W 3D 2L
Alaves
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celta Vigo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alaves away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Celta Vigo at home only, Alaves away only.
Injuries & availability
Celta Vigo absences
-
B. Iglesias
muscle injury
- C. Starfelt muscle injury
-
J. El Abdellaoui
knee injury
-
M. Roman
knee injury
- P. Duran calf injury
Alaves absences
-
A. Perez
suspended
-
F. Garces
suspended
-
M. Rodriguez
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Celta Vigo vs Alaves head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Celta Vigo 6 · draws 2 · Alaves 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Celta Vigo | 3-4 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2025-11-22 | Alaves | 0-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2025-01-27 | Alaves | 1-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2024-08-16 | Celta Vigo | 2-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2024-04-27 | Alaves | 3-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2023-09-28 | Celta Vigo | 1-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2022-05-07 | Celta Vigo | 4-0 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2021-11-27 | Alaves | 1-2 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2021-04-04 | Alaves | 1-3 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2020-12-20 | Celta Vigo | 2-0 | Alaves | La Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Valencia vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla 2026-10-18
- Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Celta Vigo, previous: Elche – Celta Vigo, 2026-10-11
- Alaves, previous: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: odds and pick
- Alaves, next: Alaves vs Malaga: odds and pick