Monza VS Cagliari Football Prediction 19/10/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Monza vs Cagliari preview

Monza has a 42% probability of winning, while Cagliari stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Monza's expected goals are 1.96 compared to Cagliari's 1.55. Over 2.5 goals is forecasted at 68%, and both teams to score is at 69%.

Recent form shows Monza with two wins in their last six matches, while Cagliari has three wins in the same period. In their last four encounters, Monza has won once, drawn once, and lost twice to Cagliari. The confidence grade is B, indicating a moderate level of certainty. The variability in each team's recent performance introduces a significant source of doubt.

Why this pick: Monza vs Cagliari

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monza 10, Cagliari 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MonzaCagliari

1.60 xG per 90 1.45

1.52 npxG per 90 1.36

18.3 PPDA 20.7

4.2 Deep completions per 90 4.0

1.34 xPTS per 90 1.22

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Monza vs Cagliari: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Monza	Draw	Cagliari
Model	46%	25%	29%
Market	40%	30%	30%
Published	41%	29%	30%
Edge	+6%	-5%	-2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.54.
The market prices Monza below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded 2026-10-17 — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.

Monza vs Cagliari odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Monza, 36 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.16Now 2.40 +0.24

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Monza	2.16	2.40	+0.24
Draw	3.18	3.17	-0.01
Cagliari	3.65	3.13	-0.52

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Monza and Cagliari expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96Monza

1.54Cagliari

Total expected goals: 3.50
Attack rating (Monza / Cagliari): 1.19 / 1.00
Defence rating (Monza / Cagliari): 1.32 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Monza vs Cagliari score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 2.8% 3.6% 1.8% 1.0% 1 4.1% 10.9% 7.0% 3.6% 2.0% 2 5.8% 8.9% 6.9% 3.5% 1.9% 3 3.8% 5.8% 4.5% 2.3% 1.3% 4+ 2.9% 4.5% 3.5% 1.8% 1.0%

Rows: Monza goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Monza vs Cagliari goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Monza vs Cagliari

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Monza	41%	2.43
	Draw	29%	3.47
	Cagliari	30%	3.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.47
	Under 2.5	32%	3.12
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.26
Double chance	1X (Monza or draw)	70%	1.43
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Cagliari)	59%	1.70
Handicap -1	Monza win by 2+	27%	3.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—