Updated

Serie A · Matchday 7

Bologna vs Inter

· Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna· Referee Daniele Doveri

Full time1 – 3

BCCFC prediction was Inter to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BolognaDrawInter

Why this pick: Bologna vs Inter

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bologna 10, Inter 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BolognaInter
1.36 xG per 90 2.81
1.29 npxG per 90 2.72
13.4 PPDA 11.8
4.4 Deep completions per 90 13.0
1.57 xPTS per 90 2.20

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bologna vs Inter: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBolognaDrawInter
Model27%23%50%
Market16%23%61%
Published19%23%58%
Edge+11%0%-11%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.70.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bologna vs Inter odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Inter, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.62Now 1.57 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bologna5.455.95+0.50
Draw3.914.13+0.22
Inter1.621.57-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bologna and Inter expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Bologna
2.28Inter
Total expected goals
3.98
Attack rating (Bologna / Inter)
1.04 / 1.83
Defence rating (Bologna / Inter)
1.07 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bologna vs Inter score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 2.8% 4.9% 3.7% 3.6% 1 1.7% 8.7% 8.3% 6.3% 6.1% 2 2.7% 6.1% 7.0% 5.3% 5.2% 3 1.5% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 2.9% 4+ 0.9% 2.2% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8%

Rows: Bologna goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bologna vs Inter goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bologna vs Inter

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bologna19%5.30
Draw23%4.34
Inter58%1.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.14
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.34
No25%3.96
Double chance1X (Bologna or draw)42%2.39
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Inter)81%1.23
Handicap -1Inter win by 2+31%3.20
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bologna and Inter recent form

Bologna 1W 2D 3L
Inter 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bologna at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Inter away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bologna at home only, Inter away only.

Injuries & availability

Bologna absences

  • E. Holm thigh injury
  • R. Orsolini thigh injury

Inter absences

  • B. Pavard thigh injury
  • C. Jones thigh injury
  • J. Stones injury
  • L. Martinez thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bologna lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Ł. Skorupski
  2. 3 A. Theate
  3. 16 N. Casale
  4. 36 M. Darmian
  5. 33 Juan Miranda
  6. 4 T. Pobega
  7. 19 L. Ferguson
  8. 20 N. Zortea
  9. 28 N. Cambiaghi
  10. 10 F. Bernardeschi
  11. 91 R. Piccoli

Bench: E. Helland, N. Moro, M. Amondarain, A. Dovbyk, S. Mbangula, T. Heggem, O. El Azzouzi, M. Libra, J. Odgaard, J. Enem, R. Alhassane, M. Pessina, L. De Silvestri, M. Vitík, U. Happonen

Inter lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Josep Martínez
  2. 95 A. Bastoni
  3. 25 M. Akanji
  4. 31 Y. Bisseck
  5. 32 F. Dimarco
  6. 8 P. Sučić
  7. 7 P. Zieliński
  8. 23 N. Barella
  9. 11 Luis Henrique
  10. 94 F. Esposito
  11. 9 M. Thuram

Bench: A. Stanković, R. Di Gennaro, A. Bonny, A. Diouf, H. Çalhanoğlu, H. Mkhitaryan, Carlos Augusto, L. Bovio, M. Mosconi, I. Provedel, D. Spence

Bologna vs Inter head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bologna 3 · draws 4 · Inter 3.

BolognaDrawsInter
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-23Bologna3-3InterSerie A
2026-01-04Inter3-1BolognaSerie A
2025-12-19Bologna1-1InterSuper Cup
2025-04-20Bologna1-0InterSerie A
2025-01-15Inter2-2BolognaSerie A
2024-03-09Bologna0-1InterSerie A
2023-12-20Inter1-2BolognaCoppa Italia
2023-10-07Inter2-2BolognaSerie A
2023-02-26Bologna1-0InterSerie A
2022-11-09Inter6-1BolognaSerie A

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match