Why this pick: Venezia vs Napoli
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Venezia 10, Napoli 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Venezia vs Napoli: model vs market
| Source | Venezia | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 24% | 52% |
| Market | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| Published | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.50.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Venezia vs Napoli odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 4.44 | 4.75 | +0.31 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 3.94 | -0.21 |
| Napoli | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Venezia and Napoli expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.69
- Attack rating (Venezia / Napoli)
- 1.06 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Venezia / Napoli)
- 1.48 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Venezia vs Napoli score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Venezia goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Venezia vs Napoli goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Venezia vs Napoli
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 21% | 4.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Napoli | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.42 |
| No | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Venezia or draw) | 45% | 2.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Napoli) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Venezia and Napoli recent form
Venezia
0W 0D 6L
Napoli
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Venezia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Napoli away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Venezia at home only, Napoli away only.
Injuries & availability
Venezia absences
-
A. Adorante
hernia
-
A. Bella-Kotchap
thigh injury
-
B. Franjic
shoulder injury
-
G. Busio
thigh injury
-
M. Sverko
hip injury
- T. Correia thigh injury
Napoli absences
-
A. Buongiorno
knee injury
-
A. Vergara
calf injury
- C. Favasuli thigh injury
- David Neres thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Venezia lineup · 3-5-2
- 1 F. Stanković
- 2 M. Moreno
- 15 Juan Jesus
- 25 R. Halhal
- 5 R. Haps
- 19 S. Sohm
- 26 T. Bašić
- 71 Kike Pérez
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 45 A. Adams
- 10 J. Yeboah
Bench: J. Schingtienne, A. Rrahmani, Lamine Dabo, R. Mohammed, R. Sagrado, Þ. Helgason, L. Lauberbach, M. Dagasso, S. Panada, K. Lisman, P. Mazzocchi, Toni Fernández, A. Gomes, L. Montipò
Napoli lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 A. Meret
- 5 B. Badiashile
- 13 Amir Rrahmani
- 31 S. Beukema
- 37 L. Spinazzola
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 8 S. McTominay
- 23 Giovane
- 20 L. Lucca
Bench: K. De Bruyne, N. Contini, Rafa Marín, M. Olivera, R. Højlund, M. Politano, Alisson Santos, V. Milinković-Savić, Luca Marianucci, N. Lang, A. Zambo Anguissa
Venezia vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Venezia 0 · draws 1 · Napoli 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | Venezia | 0-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-12-29 | Napoli | 1-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 2022-02-06 | Venezia | 0-2 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2021-08-22 | Napoli | 2-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Frosinone v Sassuolo — match page 2026-10-16
- Bologna vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Roma v Genoa — match page 2026-10-17
- Udinese vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Fiorentina vs Como 2026-10-18
- AC Milan vs Atalanta 2026-10-18
- Juventus vs Lazio — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Monza vs Cagliari 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Venezia, previous: Atalanta v Venezia analysis
- Napoli, previous: Napoli vs Frosinone prediction
- Napoli, next: Napoli vs Roma: odds and pick