Frosinone VS Sassuolo Football Prediction 16/10/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Frosinone 10, Sassuolo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FrosinoneSassuolo

1.56 xG per 90 1.98

1.56 npxG per 90 1.98

13.3 PPDA 15.3

6.1 Deep completions per 90 8.7

1.30 xPTS per 90 1.64

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Frosinone	Draw	Sassuolo
Model	63%	22%	14%
Market	39%	27%	34%
Published	45%	26%	29%
Edge	+24%	-5%	-19%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.04.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Frosinone below the model: +24.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded 2026-10-09 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Frosinone, 21 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.42Now 2.42 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Frosinone	2.42	2.42	+0.00
Draw	3.43	3.45	+0.02
Sassuolo	2.90	2.80	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Frosinone and Sassuolo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.26Frosinone

1.04Sassuolo

Total expected goals: 3.31
Attack rating (Frosinone / Sassuolo): 1.54 / 1.32
Defence rating (Frosinone / Sassuolo): 0.67 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 2.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 1 6.6% 10.4% 4.5% 1.6% 0.5% 2 9.4% 9.8% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 3 7.1% 7.4% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 4+ 6.8% 7.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4%

Rows: Frosinone goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 42%

Both teams to score: 60%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Frosinone	45%	2.22
	Draw	26%	3.83
	Sassuolo	29%	3.46
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.56
	Under 2.5	36%	2.79
Both teams to score	Yes	60%	1.67
	No	40%	2.49
Double chance	1X (Frosinone or draw)	71%	1.41
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Sassuolo)	55%	1.82
Handicap -1	Frosinone win by 2+	42%	2.38
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Frosinone and Sassuolo recent form

Frosinone 3W 2D 1L

Sassuolo 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Frosinone at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-0-1
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 1.67
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Sassuolo away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.33
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

League matches this season before kick-off: Frosinone at home only, Sassuolo away only.

Frosinone vs Sassuolo head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Frosinone 2 · draws 3 · Sassuolo 4.

22% 33% 45%

FrosinoneDrawsSassuolo

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-09-02	Sassuolo	1-1	Frosinone	Coppa Italia
2025-05-13	Sassuolo	0-1	Frosinone	Serie B
2024-12-14	Frosinone	1-2	Sassuolo	Serie B
2024-03-09	Sassuolo	1-0	Frosinone	Serie A
2023-09-17	Frosinone	4-2	Sassuolo	Serie A
2019-05-05	Sassuolo	2-2	Frosinone	Serie A
2018-12-16	Frosinone	0-2	Sassuolo	Serie A
2016-05-08	Frosinone	0-1	Sassuolo	Serie A
2016-01-06	Sassuolo	2-2	Frosinone	Serie A

Before and after this match

Frosinone, previous: Napoli vs Frosinone prediction
Sassuolo, previous: Sassuolo v AC Milan analysis

Prediction snapshot Frosinone to win Predicted score 2 – 1 B Bet on Frosinone