Why this pick: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Strasbourg 10, Paris Saint Germain 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain: model vs market
| Source | Strasbourg | Draw | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 18% | 64% |
| Market | 14% | 17% | 68% |
| Published | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.47.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 6.38 | 6.70 | +0.32 |
| Draw | 5.20 | 5.50 | +0.30 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Strasbourg and Paris Saint Germain expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.10
- Attack rating (Strasbourg / Paris Saint Germain)
- 0.83 / 1.80
- Defence rating (Strasbourg / Paris Saint Germain)
- 1.18 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Strasbourg goals. Columns: Paris Saint Germain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Strasbourg | 15% | 6.51 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.71 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Strasbourg or draw) | 33% | 3.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Paris Saint Germain) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win by 2+ | 43% | 2.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Strasbourg and Paris Saint Germain recent form
Strasbourg
2W 1D 3L
Paris Saint Germain
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Strasbourg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Paris Saint Germain away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Strasbourg at home only, Paris Saint Germain away only.
Injuries & availability
Strasbourg absences
-
I. Doukoure
inactive
-
J. Panichelli
knee injury
-
M. Godo
muscle injury
-
S. Nanasi
injury
Paris Saint Germain absences
-
A. Longoni
injury
- S. Mayulu muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Strasbourg lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 36 Oso
- 31 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
- 4 J. Mitchell
- 16 G. Antwi
- 21 P. Diop
- 14 Dário Essugo
- 19 Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé
- 10 G. Reyna
- 80 Gessime Yassine
- 40 C. Harder
Bench: S. Amo-Ameyaw, M. Piekutowski, Diogo Sousa, L. Høgsberg, Tyrese Noubissie, S. El Mourabet, J. Ortega, Y. Becker
Paris Saint Germain lineup · 4-3-3
- 39 M. Safonov
- 12 L. Digne
- 21 L. Hernández
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 33 W. Zaïre-Emery
- 4 Beraldo
- 27 Pedro Fernández
- 87 João Neves
- 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
- 9 Ferran Torres
- 11 M. Akliouche
Bench: A. Hakimi, Fabián Ruiz, O. Dembélé, D. Doué, Vitinha, M. Godts, Nuno Mendes, L. Chevalier, W. Pacho
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Strasbourg 1 · draws 3 · Paris Saint Germain 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Strasbourg | 1-2 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-17 | Paris Saint Germain | 3-3 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Strasbourg | 2-1 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-10-19 | Paris Saint Germain | 4-2 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-02 | Strasbourg | 1-2 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-21 | Paris Saint Germain | 3-0 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-05-27 | Strasbourg | 1-1 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-12-28 | Paris Saint Germain | 2-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-04-29 | Strasbourg | 3-3 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-08-14 | Paris Saint Germain | 4-2 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Le Mans vs Toulouse 2026-10-16
- Lille vs Brest — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Estac Troyes vs Lens 2026-10-17
- Angers v Marseille — match page 2026-10-18
- Lorient vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Le Havre v Auxerre — match page 2026-10-18
- Paris FC vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lyon vs Nice 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Strasbourg, previous: Nice – Strasbourg, 2026-10-11
- Paris Saint Germain, previous: Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans analysis