Why this pick: Le Mans vs Toulouse
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Mans 5, Toulouse 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Le Mans vs Toulouse: model vs market
| Source | Le Mans | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Published | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | +24% | -6% | -18% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Le Mans vs Toulouse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toulouse, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 3.10 | 3.08 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.46 | +0.01 |
| Toulouse | 2.27 | 2.27 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Le Mans and Toulouse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Le Mans / Toulouse)
- 1.23 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Le Mans / Toulouse)
- 0.90 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Le Mans vs Toulouse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Le Mans goals. Columns: Toulouse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Le Mans vs Toulouse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Le Mans vs Toulouse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Mans | 37% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Toulouse | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.57 |
| No | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Le Mans or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Toulouse) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toulouse win by 2+ | 10% | 10.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Le Mans and Toulouse recent form
Le Mans
2W 3D 1L
Toulouse
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Le Mans at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toulouse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Le Mans at home only, Toulouse away only.
Before and after this match
- Le Mans, previous: Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans analysis
- Toulouse, previous: Monaco vs Toulouse: odds and pick