Why this pick: Lille vs Brest
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lille 10, Brest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lille vs Brest: model vs market
| Source | Lille | Draw | Brest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Edge | -15% | -2% | +17% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lille vs Brest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lille, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.62 | 1.97 | +0.35 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 3.72 | -0.43 |
| Brest | 5.10 | 3.70 | -1.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lille and Brest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Lille / Brest)
- 0.97 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Lille / Brest)
- 1.08 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lille vs Brest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Brest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lille vs Brest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lille vs Brest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Brest | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lille or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Brest) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win by 2+ | 16% | 6.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lille and Brest recent form
Lille
3W 0D 3L
Brest
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lille at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Brest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lille at home only, Brest away only.
Injuries & availability
Lille absences
- A. Ueda foot injury
-
H. Igamane
knee injury
-
T. Santos
knee injury
Brest absences
-
B. Chardonnet
calf injury
- G. Versini leg injury
-
N. Edjouma
loan agreement
- R. Le Guen broken leg
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Lille lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 12 O. Gill
- 15 R. Perraud
- 23 T. Nianzou
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 38 M. Goffi
- 17 N. Mukau
- 21 B. André
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 8 E. Mbappé
- 9 O. Giroud
Bench: N. Bentaleb, M. Kjærgaard, B. Önal, C. Verdonk, I. Cossier, G. Perrin, S. Diaoune
Brest lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 E. Selvik
- 2 B. Locko
- 4 G. Lloris
- 29 L. Tousart
- 70 K. Lala
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 13 J. Chotard
- 9 P. Mboup
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 17 Mama Baldé
- 19 L. Ajorque
Bench: M. Diambou, J. Nonge Boende, J. Bourgault, L. Zogbe, Ibrahim Yayiya Kante, M. Patouillet, D. N´Guessan
Lille vs Brest head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lille 3 · draws 5 · Brest 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Lille | 1-1 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Brest | 3-3 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Brest | 2-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-06 | Lille | 3-1 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Brest | 1-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Lille | 1-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-02-24 | Lille | 2-1 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-01-11 | Brest | 0-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-01-22 | Brest | 2-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-10-23 | Lille | 1-1 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Le Mans vs Toulouse 2026-10-16
- Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — match page 2026-10-17
- Estac Troyes vs Lens 2026-10-17
- Angers v Marseille — match page 2026-10-18
- Lorient vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Le Havre v Auxerre — match page 2026-10-18
- Paris FC vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lyon vs Nice 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Lille, previous: Lille vs Le Havre prediction
- Brest, previous: Brest v Angers analysis
- Brest, next: Brest vs Nice: odds and pick