Newcastle United vs Everton preview
Newcastle United has a 41% probability of winning against Everton, who sit at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Newcastle's expected goals are slightly higher at 1.57 compared to Everton's 1.55.
Both teams to score stands at 65%, while the model forecasts over 2.5 goals at 62%. Recent form shows Newcastle United with 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Everton has 2 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record favours Everton with 5 wins out of the last 10 encounters, creating uncertainty about Newcastle's chances despite their higher win probability.
Why this pick: Newcastle United vs Everton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Newcastle United 10, Everton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Newcastle United vs Everton: model vs market
| Source | Newcastle United | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Newcastle United vs Everton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Newcastle United, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 2.26 | 2.31 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.54 | -0.24 |
| Everton | 3.23 | 2.96 | -0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Newcastle United and Everton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Newcastle United / Everton)
- 0.99 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Newcastle United / Everton)
- 1.25 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Newcastle United vs Everton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Newcastle United goals. Columns: Everton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Newcastle United vs Everton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Newcastle United vs Everton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Everton | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Newcastle United or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Everton) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle United win by 2+ | 16% | 6.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Newcastle United and Everton recent form
Newcastle United
2W 0D 4L
Everton
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Newcastle United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Everton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Newcastle United at home only, Everton away only.
Injuries & availability
Newcastle United absences
-
E. Jaouen
muscle injury
- L. Miley muscle injury
-
M. Fernandez-Pardo
illness
-
V. Livramento
knee injury
-
W. Osula
ankle injury
Everton absences
- J. Grealish illness
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Newcastle United vs Everton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Newcastle United 3 · draws 2 · Everton 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Everton | 3-1 | Newcastle United | League Cup |
| 2026-08-12 | Newcastle United | 1-3 | Everton | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-02-28 | Newcastle United | 2-3 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2025-11-29 | Everton | 1-4 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2025-05-25 | Newcastle United | 0-1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2024-10-05 | Everton | 0-0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2024-04-02 | Newcastle United | 1-1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-12-07 | Everton | 3-0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2023-04-27 | Everton | 1-4 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2022-10-19 | Newcastle United | 1-0 | Everton | Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Bournemouth vs Leeds 2026-10-31
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-31
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Hull City vs Ipswich 2026-10-31
- Coventry v Sunderland — match page 2026-10-31
- Tottenham vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Aston Villa vs Fulham 2026-10-31
- Liverpool v Arsenal — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Newcastle United, previous: Crystal Palace v Newcastle United analysis
- Everton, previous: Arsenal v Everton analysis
- Everton, next: Everton v Coventry analysis