Everton vs Coventry preview
Everton has a 55% probability of winning against Coventry, who sit at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Everton's expected goals stand at 1.92, compared to Coventry's 1.29. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are both projected at 64%.
Coventry's recent form shows two wins and four losses, while Everton has three wins, two losses, and one draw in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this fixture is A. The disparity in expected goals raises questions about Coventry's attacking capabilities.
Why this pick: Everton vs Coventry
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Everton 10, Coventry 9). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Everton vs Coventry: model vs market
| Source | Everton | Draw | Coventry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Everton vs Coventry odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Everton, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 1.52 | 1.70 | +0.18 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.92 | +0.17 |
| Coventry | 4.30 | 4.60 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Everton and Coventry expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Everton / Coventry)
- 1.21 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Everton / Coventry)
- 0.99 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Everton vs Coventry score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Coventry goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Everton vs Coventry goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Everton vs Coventry
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Coventry | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Everton or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Coventry) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Everton win by 2+ | 32% | 3.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Everton and Coventry recent form
Everton
3W 1D 2L
Coventry
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Everton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Coventry away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Everton at home only, Coventry away only.
Before and after this match
- Everton, previous: Newcastle United v Everton analysis
- Coventry, previous: Coventry v Sunderland analysis