Tottenham vs Crystal Palace preview
Tottenham has a 57% probability of winning against Crystal Palace, who sit at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Tottenham's expected goals stand at 1.93, while Crystal Palace's is 1.24, suggesting a disparity in attacking potential. However, the recent form shows Tottenham with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while Crystal Palace has only two wins in their last five.
The head-to-head record indicates Tottenham has won 6 out of their last 10 encounters with Crystal Palace, who have secured 4 victories. This trend does not guarantee a similar outcome in the upcoming match. The confidence grade for this fixture is B, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Why this pick: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Tottenham 10, Crystal Palace 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: model vs market
| Source | Tottenham | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.24.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tottenham, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1.75 | 1.63 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 4.25 | +0.55 |
| Crystal Palace | 4.40 | 5.02 | +0.62 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tottenham and Crystal Palace expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Tottenham / Crystal Palace)
- 1.05 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Tottenham / Crystal Palace)
- 0.97 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tottenham goals. Columns: Crystal Palace goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tottenham | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Crystal Palace | 20% | 5.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tottenham or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Crystal Palace) | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tottenham win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Tottenham and Crystal Palace recent form
Tottenham
2W 2D 2L
Crystal Palace
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tottenham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Crystal Palace away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tottenham at home only, Crystal Palace away only.
Injuries & availability
Tottenham absences
-
muscle injury
- L. Bergvall knee injury
-
M. Mudryk
ankle injury
- R. Bentancur suspended
- T. Adarabioyo calf injury
-
W. Odobert
knee injury
-
X. Simons
knee injury
Crystal Palace absences
-
C. Riad
knee injury
-
I. Sarr
groin injury
- J. Larsen ankle injury
- Q. Timber hamstring injury
- T. Tomiyasu calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Tottenham 6 · draws 0 · Crystal Palace 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Tottenham | 1-3 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2025-12-28 | Crystal Palace | 0-1 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2025-05-11 | Tottenham | 0-2 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2024-10-27 | Crystal Palace | 1-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2024-03-02 | Tottenham | 3-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2023-10-27 | Crystal Palace | 1-2 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2023-05-06 | Tottenham | 1-0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2023-01-04 | Crystal Palace | 0-4 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2021-12-26 | Tottenham | 3-0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2021-09-11 | Crystal Palace | 3-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Manchester United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bournemouth vs Leeds 2026-10-31
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-31
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Hull City vs Ipswich 2026-10-31
- Coventry v Sunderland — match page 2026-10-31
- Aston Villa vs Fulham 2026-10-31
- Liverpool v Arsenal — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Tottenham, previous: Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction
- Crystal Palace, previous: Crystal Palace v Newcastle United analysis