Hull City vs Ipswich preview
Hull City has a 38% probability of winning, while Ipswich stands at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams have a 66% probability of scoring, and the expected goals for Hull City is 1.90 compared to Ipswich's 1.40. Recent form shows Hull City with a streak of D-L-D-L-D-L, while Ipswich has D-L-W-L-L-W.
The head-to-head record reveals 4 wins each for Hull City and Ipswich, alongside 2 draws from the last 10 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is A. The equal head-to-head record introduces uncertainty regarding the outcome.
Why this pick: Hull City vs Ipswich
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hull City 9, Ipswich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hull City vs Ipswich: model vs market
| Source | Hull City | Draw | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Published | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.40.
- The market prices Hull City below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.92, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +10.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hull City vs Ipswich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hull City, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 2.60 | 2.80 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Ipswich | 2.60 | 2.50 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hull City and Ipswich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Hull City / Ipswich)
- 0.85 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Hull City / Ipswich)
- 1.05 / 1.47
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hull City vs Ipswich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hull City goals. Columns: Ipswich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hull City vs Ipswich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hull City vs Ipswich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hull City | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Ipswich | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.50 |
| No | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hull City or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Ipswich) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hull City win by 2+ | 30% | 3.36 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hull City and Ipswich recent form
Hull City
0W 3D 3L
Ipswich
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hull City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Ipswich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hull City at home only, Ipswich away only.
Injuries & availability
Hull City absences
-
C. Hughes
groin injury
-
D. Gyabi
groin injury
-
E. Matazo
knee injury
-
I. Ansah
back injury
-
J. Butland
arm injury
- L. Gourna-Douath calf injury
-
M. Targett
ankle injury
Ipswich absences
-
J. Taylor
knee injury
- S. Lukic groin injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Hull City vs Ipswich head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hull City 4 · draws 2 · Ipswich 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Ipswich | 1-0 | Hull City | England Championship |
| 2025-11-25 | Hull City | 0-2 | Ipswich | England Championship |
| 2024-04-27 | Hull City | 3-3 | Ipswich | Championship |
| 2023-10-03 | Ipswich | 3-0 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2021-02-23 | Hull City | 0-1 | Ipswich | League One |
| 2020-11-24 | Ipswich | 0-3 | Hull City | League One |
| 2019-03-30 | Ipswich | 0-2 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2018-09-15 | Hull City | 2-0 | Ipswich | Championship |
| 2018-03-13 | Ipswich | 0-3 | Hull City | Championship |
| 2017-11-18 | Hull City | 2-2 | Ipswich | Championship |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Manchester United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bournemouth vs Leeds 2026-10-31
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-31
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Coventry v Sunderland — match page 2026-10-31
- Tottenham vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Aston Villa vs Fulham 2026-10-31
- Liverpool v Arsenal — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Hull City, previous: Hull City vs Brentford: odds and pick
- Ipswich, previous: Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest: odds and pick