Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club preview
Rayo Vallecano has a 35% probability of winning, while Athletic Club stands at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 61%, suggesting a competitive match. Rayo Vallecano's expected goals are 1.40, slightly lower than Athletic Club's 1.42, indicating a close encounter.
Recent form shows Rayo Vallecano with 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches, while Athletic Club has 2 wins and 4 draws. The head-to-head record favours Athletic Club, who have won 7 out of the last 10 meetings. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form of both teams introduces uncertainty.
Why this pick: Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rayo Vallecano 10, Athletic Club 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club: model vs market
| Source | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 3.14 | 2.73 | -0.42 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.40 | -0.02 |
| Athletic Club | 2.27 | 2.58 | +0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Rayo Vallecano / Athletic Club)
- 0.95 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Rayo Vallecano / Athletic Club)
- 1.06 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rayo Vallecano goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Athletic Club | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rayo Vallecano or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Athletic Club) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win by 2+ | 17% | 5.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club recent form
Rayo Vallecano
2W 2D 2L
Athletic Club
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rayo Vallecano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano at home only, Athletic Club away only.
Injuries & availability
Rayo Vallecano
-
A. Batalla
broken calfbone
-
I. Balliu
ankle injury
-
Luiz Felipe
hamstring injury
Athletic Club
-
A. Djalo
injury
- N. Williams thigh injury
- O. Sancet muscle injury
-
U. Egiluz
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 1 · draws 2 · Athletic Club 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2025-08-25 | Athletic Club | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2025-04-13 | Athletic Club | 3-1 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2024-12-01 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2024-05-25 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-1 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2023-12-02 | Athletic Club | 4-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2023-03-05 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2022-09-17 | Athletic Club | 3-2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2022-01-23 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-1 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2021-09-21 | Athletic Club | 1-2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Malaga vs Espanyol 2026-10-09
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-10
- Barcelona v Getafe — match page 2026-10-10
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal 2026-10-10
- Elche vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-11
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-10-11
- Real Betis vs Osasuna — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Racing Santander v Valencia — match page 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Athletic Club, next: Levante vs Athletic Club prediction