Levante vs Atletico Madrid preview
Levante has a 23% chance of winning, while Atletico Madrid stands at 55%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Levante's expected goals are 1.64, compared to Atletico Madrid's 1.93, suggesting a potential edge for the visitors.
Both teams to score has a probability of 72%, and over 2.5 goals is at 71%. Recent form shows Levante with 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 matches, while Atletico Madrid has achieved 5 wins and a draw in the same period. The head-to-head record indicates Levante has 0 wins and 1 draw against Atletico Madrid in their last 2 encounters, raising questions about their competitiveness.
Why this pick: Levante vs Atletico Madrid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Levante 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market
| Source | Levante | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Market | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Published | 21% | 22% | 58% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.57.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.61, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Levante vs Atletico Madrid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 5.57 | 5.25 | -0.32 |
| Draw | 4.47 | 4.53 | +0.05 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.56 | 1.55 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Levante and Atletico Madrid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Levante / Atletico Madrid)
- 1.09 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Levante / Atletico Madrid)
- 1.43 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Levante goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Levante vs Atletico Madrid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levante | 21% | 4.86 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Atletico Madrid | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Levante or draw) | 42% | 2.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win by 2+ | 29% | 3.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Levante and Atletico Madrid recent form
Levante
1W 2D 3L
Atletico Madrid
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Levante at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Madrid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Levante at home only, Atletico Madrid away only.
Injuries & availability
Levante absences
- Dela overload
-
E. Bardeli
muscle injury
Atletico Madrid absences
- C. Romero muscle injury
- J. Cardoso thigh injury
- Koke muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Levante 2 · draws 4 · Atletico Madrid 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Levante | 0-0 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-11-08 | Atletico Madrid | 3-1 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2023-01-18 | Levante | 0-2 | Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| 2022-02-16 | Atletico Madrid | 0-1 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2021-10-28 | Levante | 2-2 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2021-02-20 | Atletico Madrid | 0-2 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2021-02-17 | Levante | 1-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2020-06-23 | Levante | 0-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2020-01-04 | Atletico Madrid | 2-1 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2019-05-18 | Levante | 2-2 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Villarreal v Espanyol — match page 2026-10-30
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-31
- Real Betis vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Barcelona vs Alaves — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna 2026-11-01
- Elche v Valencia — match page 2026-11-01
- Getafe vs Sevilla 2026-11-01
- Racing Santander vs Real Madrid — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Levante, previous: Real Sociedad v Levante analysis
- Atletico Madrid, previous: Atletico Madrid – Deportivo La Coruna, 2026-10-24