Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo preview
Rayo Vallecano has a 43% probability of winning against Celta Vigo, who share a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability, indicating a potential for goals, though this does not guarantee a high-scoring match. Expected goals suggest Rayo Vallecano at 1.51 and Celta Vigo at 1.08, which reflects a disparity in attacking potential.
Recent form shows Rayo Vallecano with 2 wins from their last 6 matches, while Celta Vigo has 3 wins in the same period. The head-to-head record favours Rayo Vallecano slightly, with 2 wins and 3 draws in the last 6 encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of clarity in recent performances raises questions about consistency.
Why this pick: Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rayo Vallecano 10, Celta Vigo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: model vs market
| Source | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 28% | 21% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.09.
- The market prices Rayo Vallecano below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rayo Vallecano, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 2.19 | 2.42 | +0.23 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.27 | -0.10 |
| Celta Vigo | 3.41 | 3.02 | -0.39 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Rayo Vallecano / Celta Vigo)
- 1.13 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Rayo Vallecano / Celta Vigo)
- 1.16 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rayo Vallecano goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Celta Vigo | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rayo Vallecano or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Celta Vigo) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win by 2+ | 29% | 3.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo recent form
Rayo Vallecano
2W 2D 2L
Celta Vigo
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rayo Vallecano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta Vigo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano at home only, Celta Vigo away only.
Injuries & availability
Rayo Vallecano absences
-
A. Batalla
broken calfbone
- A. Ratiu muscle injury
-
Luiz Felipe
knee injury
- P. Ciss yellow cards
Celta Vigo absences
- A. Nunez groin injury
-
B. Iglesias
calf injury
- C. Starfelt muscle injury
-
J. El Abdellaoui
knee injury
-
M. Roman
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 2 · draws 5 · Celta Vigo 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Celta Vigo | 3-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2025-09-21 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2025-05-18 | Celta Vigo | 1-2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2025-01-10 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2024-03-31 | Celta Vigo | 0-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2023-12-11 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2023-03-11 | Celta Vigo | 3-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2022-11-10 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2022-02-05 | Celta Vigo | 2-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2021-11-01 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Villarreal v Espanyol — match page 2026-10-30
- Levante v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-31
- Real Betis vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Barcelona vs Alaves — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna 2026-11-01
- Elche v Valencia — match page 2026-11-01
- Getafe vs Sevilla 2026-11-01
- Racing Santander vs Real Madrid — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Rayo Vallecano, previous: Rayo Vallecano – Elche, 2026-10-24
- Celta Vigo, previous: Celta Vigo v Real Betis analysis