Barcelona vs Alaves preview
Barcelona has an 81% probability of winning against Alaves, who sit at just 7%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance, while the expected goals are 2.85 for Barcelona and 1.26 for Alaves. Despite Barcelona's strong position, their recent form shows two losses in the last three matches, which raises questions about their consistency.
Alaves, on the other hand, has not won in their last six matches, recording five losses and one draw. Barcelona has won 5 of the last 6 encounters between the teams, with Alaves managing only 1 victory. The confidence grade for this match is A, but the recent form of both teams introduces uncertainty.
Why this pick: Barcelona vs Alaves
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Barcelona 10, Alaves 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Barcelona vs Alaves: model vs market
| Source | Barcelona | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Market | 86% | 9% | 5% |
| Published | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.85 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.12, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Barcelona vs Alaves odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barcelona, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1.16 | 1.10 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 7.50 | 10.50 | +3.00 |
| Alaves | 18.50 | 21.00 | +2.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Barcelona and Alaves expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.11
- Attack rating (Barcelona / Alaves)
- 2.05 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Barcelona / Alaves)
- 1.07 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barcelona vs Alaves score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barcelona vs Alaves goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barcelona vs Alaves
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 83% | 1.21 |
| Draw | 11% | 9.12 | |
| Alaves | 6% | 15.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 4.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barcelona or draw) | 94% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 89% | 1.12 | |
| X2 (draw or Alaves) | 17% | 5.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win by 2+ | 53% | 1.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Barcelona and Alaves recent form
Barcelona
4W 0D 2L
Alaves
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barcelona at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 3.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 9 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 4.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Alaves away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barcelona at home only, Alaves away only.
Injuries & availability
Barcelona absences
- A. Christensen muscle injury
-
D. Olmo
groin injury
-
E. Garcia
muscle injury
- J. Kounde ankle injury
-
R. Bardghji
knee injury
-
X. Espart
ankle injury
Alaves absences
-
F. Garces
suspended
-
M. Rodriguez
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Barcelona vs Alaves head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Barcelona 5 · draws 0 · Alaves 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Alaves | 1-0 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2025-11-29 | Barcelona | 3-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2025-02-02 | Barcelona | 1-0 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2024-10-06 | Alaves | 0-3 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2024-02-03 | Alaves | 1-3 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2023-11-12 | Barcelona | 2-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Levante v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-31
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-31
- Real Betis vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna 2026-11-01
- Elche v Valencia — match page 2026-11-01
- Getafe vs Sevilla 2026-11-01
- Racing Santander vs Real Madrid — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Athletic Club v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Barcelona, previous: Barcelona vs Real Madrid: odds and pick
- Alaves, previous: Alaves vs Malaga: odds and pick