Ipswich vs Bournemouth preview
Ipswich has a 22% chance of winning, while Bournemouth stands at 54%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% probability. Ipswich's expected goals are 1.06, significantly lower than Bournemouth's 2.63. The data indicates a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 63%.
Bournemouth's recent form shows 6 consecutive wins, while Ipswich has only 1 win in their last 6 matches. The head-to-head record is even, with each team winning once in their last 2 encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the disparity in recent form raises questions about Ipswich's ability to compete.
Why this pick: Ipswich vs Bournemouth
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Ipswich 10, Bournemouth 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Ipswich vs Bournemouth: model vs market
| Source | Ipswich | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| Market | 26% | 26% | 49% |
| Published | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Edge | -3% | -2% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bournemouth below our published probability: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +21.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Ipswich vs Bournemouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 3.00 | 3.80 | +0.80 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.70 | +0.40 |
| Bournemouth | 2.25 | 1.92 | -0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ipswich and Bournemouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Ipswich / Bournemouth)
- 1.09 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Ipswich / Bournemouth)
- 1.37 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ipswich vs Bournemouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ipswich goals. Columns: Bournemouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ipswich vs Bournemouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ipswich vs Bournemouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ipswich | 22% | 4.48 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Bournemouth | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ipswich or draw) | 46% | 2.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Bournemouth) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win by 2+ | 45% | 2.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Ipswich and Bournemouth recent form
Ipswich
1W 2D 3L
Bournemouth
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ipswich at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Bournemouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ipswich at home only, Bournemouth away only.
Ipswich vs Bournemouth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ipswich 1 · draws 0 · Bournemouth 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | Bournemouth | 1-2 | Ipswich | Premier League |
| 2024-12-08 | Ipswich | 1-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Leeds v Tottenham — match page 2026-11-07
- Fulham v Newcastle United — match page 2026-11-07
- Arsenal vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Brighton v Brentford — match page 2026-11-08
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Sunderland vs Chelsea 2026-11-08
- Manchester United vs Aston Villa 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Ipswich, previous: Hull City – Ipswich, 2026-10-31
- Bournemouth, previous: Bournemouth v Leeds analysis