Sunderland vs Chelsea preview
Sunderland has a 31% chance of winning against Chelsea, who stand at 42%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 7% probability. Sunderland's expected goals are 1.86 compared to Chelsea's 1.59, suggesting a competitive match. However, this does not prove that Sunderland will outperform Chelsea in terms of actual goals scored.
Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Sunderland recording 2 wins in their last 6 matches and Chelsea achieving 3 wins in the same span. The probabilities indicate a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 70%. Yet, the head-to-head record shows Sunderland winning both of their last encounters, raising questions about Chelsea's ability to break this trend.
Why this pick: Sunderland vs Chelsea
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sunderland 10, Chelsea 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sunderland vs Chelsea: model vs market
| Source | Sunderland | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Published | 31% | 26% | 42% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sunderland vs Chelsea odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chelsea, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 3.80 | 3.70 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.62 | +0.12 |
| Chelsea | 1.85 | 2.00 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sunderland and Chelsea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Sunderland / Chelsea)
- 0.79 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Sunderland / Chelsea)
- 1.16 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sunderland vs Chelsea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sunderland vs Chelsea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sunderland vs Chelsea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sunderland | 31% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Chelsea | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sunderland or draw) | 58% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Chelsea) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win by 2+ | 24% | 4.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sunderland and Chelsea recent form
Sunderland
1W 2D 3L
Chelsea
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sunderland at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Chelsea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sunderland at home only, Chelsea away only.
Sunderland vs Chelsea head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sunderland 2 · draws 0 · Chelsea 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Sunderland | 2-1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2025-10-25 | Chelsea | 1-2 | Sunderland | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Leeds v Tottenham — match page 2026-11-07
- Fulham v Newcastle United — match page 2026-11-07
- Arsenal vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Brighton v Brentford — match page 2026-11-08
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Ipswich vs Bournemouth 2026-11-08
- Manchester United vs Aston Villa 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Sunderland, previous: Coventry v Sunderland analysis
- Chelsea, previous: Chelsea – Manchester United, 2026-10-31